It is possible to avoid catastrophic heat waves, flooding, drought, crop failures and species extinction according to the fourth and final instalment of the sixth assessment (AR6) synthesis report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved by 195 countries on Monday. The report concludes that the world now has the know-how and the technology needed to win the climate challenge and there is a “rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”
Nine years in the making, the report that is being dubbed as a survival guide and a final warning, points out that multiple lines of evidence suggest that the recent mitigation policies of a few countries, that have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced the rate of deforestation, and accelerated technology deployment, have led to “avoided, and in some cases reduced or removed emissions”. Though those measures are not sufficient to stabilise temperatures yet, they are enough to indicate that there still may be hope for humanity if all nations make an immediate and drastic shift away from fossil fuels, reduce methane emissions and halt deforestation.
Dire Warning
Earth has already warmed an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius since the industrial age and temperatures will rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by “the first half of 2030,” warns the report. The existing and currently planned fossil fuel infrastructure — coal-fired power plants, oil wells, factories, cars and trucks across the globe — will already produce enough carbon dioxide to warm the planet roughly 2 degrees Celsius this century. To keep warming below that level, many of those projects would need to be cancelled, retired early or otherwise cleaned up.
Even as the report reveals the sheer scale of the ambition required to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, it details how risks are increasing with every increment of warming and how impacts are more severe and longer lasting than previously assessed even with the relatively modest warming we have seen so far. Every region is experiencing “widespread adverse impacts”, almost half the world’s population is “highly vulnerable” to climate change impacts and projected repercussions will escalate rapidly.
Founded in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program, IPCC is a UN body that evaluates climate science by bringing together leading scientists to study climate change and how it is reshaping the world and offers solutions to cut emissions and adapt to a hotter planet.
Climate Change Predictions
The IPCC’s warnings began in 1990 with its First Assessment Report, which predicted the pace of global warming. The Second Assessment, published in 1995, expressed greater certainty that climate change was largely caused by human activities. In 2001, the Third Assessment warned that the temperature increases would become worse than previously feared if we didn’t reduce our carbon emissions. By the time of its Fourth Assessment, in 2007, the IPCC was using words like unequivocal to describe the consensus that humans were the main cause of warming. In 2014, the Fifth Assessment dealt the world a hard truth: Greenhouse gas emissions were higher than ever, causing an unprecedented acceleration of climate change’s impacts.
And the Sixth Assessment, which was released in three parts, beginning in 2021, discussed Physical Science, Mitigation and Adaptation. It included three special reports on Global Warming of 1.5°C, The ocean and cryosphere and Climate change and land. The synthesis report concludes the biggest update on the state of knowledge on climate science and the end of the IPCC AR6 cycle. The Sixth Assessment of the IPCC makes clear: A rapid fossil fuel phaseout and rollout of renewable energies alongside energy efficiency and demand-side measures remain the clearest and most certain path to avoid overshoot.
Suggesting Pathways
IPCC climate scientists stress that they do not tell governments what to do, but rather assess different pathways they could take. In UN jargon, they say they are "policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive". They also say their conclusions for the future are projections — based on different warming scenarios — rather than predictions.
However, it is important to note that the synthesis report, is almost certain to be the last such assessment until 2030 and will inform the 2023 Global Stocktake, i.e., the progress on the commitments as per the Paris agreement, at the COP 28, the next UN climate negotiations to be held in the United Arab Emirates later this year.
At COP28, nations must come prepared as IPCC makes clear, to peak emissions before 2025 at the very latest, nearly halve emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero CO2 emissions around mid-century, while also ensuring a just and equitable transition. In the words of UN secretary general, António Guterres “Our world needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once.” That is the only way the world can deliver on IPCC's agenda.
Shailendra Yashwant is a senior advisor to Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA). Twitter: @shaibaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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