By Smita Mishra
Over a week after the dastardly Pahalgam attack shook our souls and awakened us to the grim reality that Jammu and Kashmir continues to battle cross border terrorism, the entire International Border and Line of Control has flared up. From Kathua to Pargwal to Akhnoor and through the LoC right up to Bandipora, hardly any segment is untouched by the firing. As of now, it is mostly small arms fire but escalation seems imminent.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared emphatically that not only the terrorists but their backers will also not go unpunished. After every 'high level' meeting reported from New Delhi, Pakistan releases a new set of videos and conducts press conferences laced with threats of its nuclear power. These comments have only confirmed how rattled our western neighbour is. Meanwhile, the online team of Pak's ISI has unleashed a 24/7 fake news campaign as part of its psy-ops.
While there is no doubt in anybody's mind that India's response this time will be befitting and disproportionate, there is a new front that has opened and the country needs to be mindful of it.
Under Muhammad Yunus, a new bonhomie is developing between Pakistan and Bangladesh. This, when coupled with the warmth between China, Bangladesh and Pakistan, is a cause of worry. During Kargil conflict or other shorter periods of tension, India did not have the eastern frontier to worry about. Things are very different now.
From the day Yunus took charge as the Chief Advisor of the Interim government in Bangladesh, Pakistan has been making visible efforts to rebuild its ties with the country with some help from China. Continuous diplomatic engagements have been reported in the last few months.
Yunus and Pak PM Shehbaz Sharif met twice on the sidelines of multilateral fora. Phone calls and other events have become frequent. Both the nations have scaled up their bilateral trade and are setting new targets of trade co-operation. The most talked about event was the first Foreign Secretary level talks between the two countries after 15 years when Pak foreign secretary Amna Baloch travelled to Dhaka and met her counterpart M Jashimuddin.
The real cause of worry for New Delhi, however, is the growing military co-operation. A top general of Bangladesh army met Gen Asim Munir in Islamabad. Two back-to-back ISI delegations visited Bangladesh and one even travelled to Chittagong to inspect the port there.
Major concessions in visa and travel rules have been announced for Pakistanis. This Pak-Bangla bonhomie is a new challenge. To top it all, Yunus's cryptic comments that India's northeast is landlocked and thereby seeming to imply that Bangladesh should annex it. This may appear laughable to some but it shows how sinister his intentions are. In fact, the threat is not just academic anymore. Maj. Gen (retd) ALM Fazlur Rehman, who has been appointed as Chairman of a Commission, met Yunus and in less than 24 hours remarked that if India attacks Pakistan, Bangladesh should occupy the North East.
Let us now look closer home. Murshidabad burned following Waqf-related protests. Riots and violence were reported from Malda and other neighbouring districts. In the light of this, the eastern front requires enhanced vigil.
That demographic change along the Indo-Bangla border in West Bengal has altered the dynamics of the region is now public knowledge. India's security is threatened there both from within and without. With this background, the Chicken's Neck area has become more and more vulnerable. Though the area consists of only two-three districts, Uttar Dinajpur, Cooch Behar and Darjeeling, its strategic importance cannot be stressed enough.
To get an idea of the strategic importance of the corridor, keep in mind it is just 200-odd kilometres in length and 50 km in breadth. At its narrowest, it is just about 20 km. Yunus brought back focus on the security of Chicken's Neck area by mentioning the vulnerability of India's northeast. Regardless of Yunus's ill-advised bravado, the tension on the Indo-Pak border shows that we cannot rule out trouble on the Indo-Bangla border. Pakistan’s ISI generals would definitely like some diversion from that side too in order to distract our attention. Yunus might just fall for it. Who knows?
(Smita Mishra is Advisor, Prasar Bharati).
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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