OPINION | Cast(e) in stone in Bihar

It's precisely because caste is king and election results hinge on identity politics-based mobilisation more than anything else, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is marginally ahead and most likely to wrest power from the NDA on November 14 -- provided the elections are fair.

Fairness is absolutely critical, especially in close contests, which virtually all poll pundits are predicting in the run-up to voting on November 6 and 11.

Mahagathbandhan’s arithmetic

The castes backing the Mahagathbandhan are known to be steadfast in supporting the cause and their enthusiasm and fervour characteristically spike as the elections come nearer. The Yadavs, comprising 14 percent of Bihar’s population, are the lynchpin. And Muslims constituting almost 18 percent of the electorate give the alliance even more heft than the Yadavs – a fact rarely acknowledged. Then there are the Mallahs, or fishermen and boatmen, constituting three percent of voters whose loyalty is certain after declaring VIP leader Mukesh Sahani a potential Mahagathbandhan deputy chief minister. This caste basket, covering as much as 35 percent of the electorate, looks solid and unshakeable.

Not content with their traditional supporters, the RJD, and to some extent the Congress Party, has resorted to social engineering by seducing the Koeris – comprising 5-6 percent of the electorate and presumed to be Nitish Kumar’s vote bank. The fine tuning is evident from the RJD denying tickets to Yadavs and giving them instead to Koeris and other backward castes, including extremely backward castes. In 2020, RJD gave tickets to 54 Yadavs but this time the number has come down to 38. It has also roped in women who are known to vote for the JD (U). Its dependence on Muslims is evident as it has fielded 18 of them compared to 14 five years ago.

Chasing the floating castes

The Mahagathbandhan, particularly the RJD, has been very mindful this time of the so-called floating castes who are not rigidly committed to any political party but are known to vote in their best interests. The RJD has cleverly cast its net to catch weavers, potters and barbers by judiciously distributing some tickets among them to boost the opposition’s winnability.

The revdi factor

Besides scoring well in the caste arithmetic, the Mahagathbandhan is ahead of the NDA on the revdi front too. The NDA’s much touted transfer of Rs 10,000 into the bank accounts of women, which seemed to be a master stroke and game changer in September, has turned out to be seed money to set up a business which will have to be repaid with interest. The RJD’s announcements are far more enticing in comparison.

Several voters told me that nobody expects the Mahagathbandhan or the NDA to fulfil all the pecuniary and job promises but even if half of them are honoured, it will be highly appreciated by the beneficiaries’ entire family. Importantly, Tejashwi Yadav’s job promises are being taken seriously because of his track record. As deputy CM in the Nitish Kumar government, he is credited with providing two lakh government jobs in the education sector before parting ways.

Nitish Kumar battles voter fatigue

Thirdly, the fatigue dice is loaded against the NDA. Incumbency, by all accounts, has taken a big toll because of Nitish Kumar’s long rule. There is a palpable sense of dissatisfaction with the government’s performance. The BJP is battling the anti-incumbency factor in its own way by not publicly endorsing him as CM. Both Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have deliberately kept the chief ministership question open to beat the odds.

A professor told me in Patna that Biharis have a craving for change. According to him, even if a Bihari is served tasty food on a regular basis, he gets tired of it soon enough and insists on a makeover of the menu. And he doesn’t regret it even if the change turns out to be for the worse! The psychological longing for change is therefore a key factor in the upcoming battle for Bihar.

(This is the first article of a two-part series based on the mood on the ground.)