After days of hectic parleys, on December 17 Captain Amarinder Singh’s recently-formed Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have announced a formal pact to contest together in the Punjab elections. The partners hope to play the role of kingmaker in a multi-cornered contest.
The Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance, the NDA (National Democratic Alliance), and a block of farmers union led by Chaduni are the major contenders in the upcoming Punjab assembly elections.
Initial polls do not rule out the possibility of a hung assembly, contrary to the historical trend of Punjab giving a clear verdict. Undecided voters which account for a big chunk (25 percent) as of now hold the keys to government formation in the state.
Questions remain as to who is the senior partner of this alliance. The BJP, an erstwhile junior ally in the state with SAD, is looking up to Singh for building acceptability among the Sikh community, which has been angry with the party over the farm laws. It also hopes that Singh can damage the Congress’ support base in the state, and lure hopefuls denied tickets.
Captain, as Amarinder Singh is called by his supporters, is depending on the BJP for resources to contest the elections. The BJP doesn’t have a cadre as well as leaders across the 117 seats. The same is Captain’s situation.
Captain hasn’t received much support yet in the state as per initial surveys. His popularity level, the best choice for Chief Minister rating, has fallen from 18 percent after his resignation to 2 percent currently. The Congress strategically has not yet announced tickets to negate any poaching efforts by Singh. On the other hand, AAP has declared candidates for 40 seats, while the SAD-BSP alliance has announced for all the seats.
The repeal of farm laws may not evoke an upheaval of support for the BJP, but what it has done is that the BJP is no longer untouchable. Leaders belonging to the Sikh community have started joining the party, such as Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee chief Manjinder Singh Sirsa and former director general of police (DGP) Sarbdeep Singh Virk.
The party is relying on Hindu consolidation in 45-odd Hindu-influenced seats. However, Punjab has never witnessed polarisation along religious lines. Sikh-Hindu relationship is not like Hindu-Muslim in the rest of India.
The BJP hopes that Singh bags some old guard votes of the Congress unhappy with his removal as Chief Minister. Add to this the personal votes of ex-Congress leaders hopping on to the PLC bandwagon. The support of Hindus is expected to provide the boost to this vote base. Even Captain is popular among the Hindus because of his nationalist image.
The BJP-PLC alliance is also banking on a hung assembly where the Captain could wean away some MLAs, and then cobble up a government with old ally SAD. However, this is easier said than done. Captain’s popularity graph is falling sharply, and he holds limited influence outside the Patiala region. He is not considered a farmer leader that can garner support for the BJP among the community.
AAP has a silent vote, and its campaign of “ek mauka” is working on the ground as per initial surveys. The SAD is also gaining in strength; its cadre has been in charge after its recent centenary celebrations.
Captain wants the Congress to lose, and hopes he could thwart its attempt to come back to power. The key question is whose vote this alliance takes, and whose does it damage? The PLC-BJP alliance could split the opposition votes which could benefit the Congress.
In 2012, Manpreet Badal had broken away from the SAD and formed the People's Party of Punjab to defeat cousin Sukhbir Badal. However, he ended up helping Sukhbir Badal to make a comeback by splitting the anti-SAD votes.
Currently, the situation is very fluid. There are a lot of undecided voters, about 25 percent, and there is the possibility of a hung assembly as well. Currently, the BJP-PLC is not a strong contender, and is a clear fourth in the race. In the complex landscape of Punjab, the BJP-PLC could find it difficult to meander.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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