A hard fought election in Bihar has steered the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to a fourth term in office.
This election was indeed much about the future of Janata Dal (United) leader and incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who, despite having delivered on various welfare measures over the last 15 years, was at his wits’ end.
Several factors were working against Kumar. One, his government’s performance appeared to be hitting a plateau after several deliverables on the social sector front. Two, the pandemic crumbled Bihar’s economy like elsewhere, besides hundreds of people from Bihar returned home — jobless and penniless from big cities and towns across India.
Adding to this scenario, the political brew was stirred by an ambitious Chirag Paswan, son of late Ram Vilas Paswan and inheritor of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Chirag Paswan launched a virulent campaign to diminish Kumar and the JD(U) — owning to personal chemistry and a failure to get a deal on seats to contest as an NDA ally. He sought to capitalise on the fatigue and unrest among sections of voters against Kumar as well as on the distance that had grown between him and a large section of BJP rank and file.
Another factor that worked against Kumar was Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav’s ability to re-energise the RJD with the chimera of 1 million government jobs for the sons of the soil. The RJD was part of the Maha Gathbandhan (MGB) opposing the NDA, and contested 144 of the 243 seats in Bihar. The other 99 seats in the MGB went to: Congress (70), CPI (Marxist-Leninist) (19), CPI (6) and CPI(M) (4).
As allegations of tacit support from the local BJP for Chirag Paswan’s rant against Kumar bedevilled the NDA, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah stepped in with an open pledge to back Kumar as the CM candidate. Modi followed his pledge with a dozen rallies where he appealed to voters saying “I need Nitish Kumar to be CM again for vikas”.
As the final results showed, the RJD hit a glass ceiling in Yadav’s quest for power despite the RJD winning the status of single-largest party (75 seats). As expected, the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress failed to deliver more than 20 seats, while the CPI(M-L) won 12 seats, and the CPI and CPI(M) got two each. But the LJP ended up damaging the JD(U), costing it nearly 30 seats (as estimated by BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi), and reducing the NDA’s tally to 125. If Chirag Paswan stayed within the NDA, the alliance could have crossed the 150 mark.
Though aware of Kumar’s diminishing popularity, Modi did not relent in his campaign, which brought a huge swell to the BJP’s tally (74 seats), and saved the JD(U) (43 seats) from a free fall. On the other hand, the MGB was restricted to 110 seats. Playing the role of ‘vote cutters’, Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen got five seats at the cost of the MGB in the Muslim-stronghold of Seemanchal. The LJP, the other ‘vote cutter’, only bagged a one seat.
In the new scenario Kumar does look diminished compared to his previous avatar. He is dependent on the BJP’s goodwill more than before. He needs all the skills to manage the demands of the big partner than before, and his dependence on Sushil Modi may not bear fruit all the time. He will have to cultivate other BJP leaders too.
There are murmurs within the BJP, even from top leaders, of the CM’s post not going back on Kumar. But Modi and the BJP may have to ensure that the support for Kumar and his JD(U) is steady and continuous like in the previous term. Any change of strategy may be tempting, but fraught with uncertainty given the numbers in the new Bihar Assembly.
Modi needs Kumar in Bihar and the BJP has done well to quash the talk of any alternative. But a year down the line, things may be tempting. Unless Kumar wishes to shift out, it will be in the interest of the BJP to allow him greater room to speed up the growth story of Bihar.
Kumar too must think beyond welfarism. Considering the state of the large sections of people in Bihar, effective delivery of socio-economic programmes cannot be slackened. Kumar needs to think beyond his socialistic mooring and look for a way to attract investments in agriculture and manufacturing in Bihar to create more jobs.
Otherwise, Yadav’s promise of government jobs will haunt Kumar later. Kumar’s success story in Bihar written with the help of the BJP will add gravitas to Modi’s success story for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
This time, Modi saved the NDA from a drubbing in Bihar and prevented any indictment of the policies of the central government too. Also, by winning Bihar, Modi has shown that, a year after the 2019 landslide win in the Lok Sabha polls, he retains the confidence of a majority of voters. But success in the 2024 polls demands a resurgent Bihar on a growth trajectory. Modi and Kumar will have to do it, setting aside the demands of their respective parties.
Shekhar Iyer is former senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald. Views are personal.
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