The turmoil in Venezuela is unlikely to have any significant economic or energy-related repercussions for India, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
In a note, the India-based think tank recalled that India was once a key purchaser of Venezuelan crude during the 2000s and 2010s, with companies such as ONGC Videsh holding upstream interests in the Orinoco oil belt. However, bilateral trade and investment ties deteriorated sharply after 2019, when US sanctions compelled India to halt oil imports and scale back commercial engagement to avoid the risk of secondary sanctions.
Consequently, India’s trade exposure to Venezuela has shrunk considerably and continues to decline, GTRI said. The assessment comes a day after US forces conducted a major military operation in Venezuela, detaining President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and transferring them to the US to face charges, including allegations of narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.
During 2024–25, India’s total imports from Venezuela stood at $364.5 million, with crude oil accounting for $255.3 million. This marked a steep 81.3% fall from crude imports of $1.4 billion recorded in 2023–24. Exports from India to Venezuela remained limited at $95.3 million, primarily driven by pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million, GTRI data showed.
Given the limited trade volumes, existing sanctions regime and the distance between the two countries, the latest developments in Venezuela are unlikely to materially affect India’s economy or its energy security, the think tank reiterated.
Looking ahead, GTRI cautioned that conflicts over access to raw materials and energy resources are likely to intensify in the evolving global order. It advised India to proceed carefully by safeguarding its strategic autonomy, steering clear of arrangements that could undermine sovereignty or long-term interests, and ensuring access to critical raw materials and energy without external geopolitical pressure.
According to GTRI, securing Venezuelan crude was a central objective of the US operation. Venezuela holds roughly 18% of global oil reserves—more than Saudi Arabia (about 16%), Russia (around 5–6%), or the United States (roughly 4%). Its reserves alone exceed those of the US and Russia combined.
The note also pointed out that the US has entered into trade agreements with partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the UK, committing them to purchase American petroleum products and LNG, despite limited domestic crude availability and refining capacity.
In this context, Venezuela—home to the world’s largest proven petroleum reserves—represents a strategically important source of upstream crude for the US, making unrestricted access to its oil a key driver behind Washington’s actions, GTRI concluded.
With ANI inputs
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