Six parties across two alliances, no chief ministerial face in either camp, a key region poised for a flip, a state divided on caste lines amid some re-alignments, and communal polarisation — Maharashtra is a proverbial googly to call this time.
The dominant slogan in the state has changed since the Lok Sabha elections — from ‘Samvidhaan khatre mein hai’ of the Congress to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) ‘Ek hain toh safe hain’. This signifies a shift in the political momentum in the state, with the Mahayuti’s more co-ordinated approach. But will that be enough to retain power in one of the most important states of the country? The Mahayuti needs a significant turnaround from its setback just six months ago.
The most significant change, and arguably the Mahayuti’s greatest hope, lies in the Vidarbha region, which holds 62 seats. In the Lok Sabha elections, the Mahayuti secured victory in only two of the 10 seats in this region. This was partly attributed to distress among cotton and soybean farmers and partly to Ambedkarite Buddhists, who constitute approximately 11% of the state’s population, shifting their support to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Vidarbha due to the ‘Samvidhan khatre main hai’ slogan. It appears this “hoax" has now been exposed.
To regain Vidarbha, the BJP has promised to procure cotton crops above the Minimum Support Price (MSP) this season and to procure soybean under the Price Support Scheme with moisture content tolerance of up to 15%. It seems a segment of farmers is no longer upset with the Mahayuti.
Things, however, are still in the MVA’s favour in Marathwada, where 46 seats are up for grabs. Maratha votes appear consolidated in the absence of Manoj Jarange in the political field. The Mahayuti is hoping that Eknath Shinde will be able to woo the region.
An OBC consolidation (38% of voters) for the Mahayuti is likely, given the top BJP leadership has been silent on the issue of Maratha reservation in their speeches during these elections. Mahayuti had faced a double whammy in the Lok Sabha polls. While Marathas voted against them due to the unfulfilled promise of reservation, the Other Backward Classes (OBC), too, were upset with the BJP’s overtures to the Marathas. This time, with the ‘Ek hain toh safe hain’, the BJP is confident of an OBC-SC consolidation.
The result of the same has been the latest backing of the MVA by the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), which is expected to again consolidate the Muslim vote as witnessed during the Lok Sabha elections. This may upset some calculations as the BJP was hoping that Muslims may not vote for Uddhav Thackeray’s candidates this time, even as they back the Congress and Sharad Pawar. The BJP is also wary of veteran Sharad Pawar’s moves and machinations.
Things could be more closely contested in Western Maharashtra and the Thane-Konkan region, where the two factions of the NCP and Shiv Sena are engaged in close fights. The “sympathy" factor for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray seems to have run its course in the Lok Sabha elections. The ground feedback suggests Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde could emerge as the ‘kingmakers’ with the BJP as the single-largest party; and the Mahayuti has a challenging job of keeping all together.
In urban areas like Mumbai-Thane and Pune, people seemed keen to let the “development and infrastructure journey" continue under the Mahayuti reign.
The ‘Hukum ka Ikka’ (ace) up the BJP’s sleeve, as multiple leaders told CNN-News18, is the ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana’, which could override caste and regional factors to swing the election in the Mahayuti’s favour. The five instalments of Rs 1,500 disbursed so far to over two crore women, with a promise of Rs 2,100 after the elections, is the Mahayuti’s biggest calling card with deep resonance on the ground. But will the voters be enticed by the MVA’s counter-promise of ‘Rs 3,000’?
The Maharashtra voter is keeping his cards close to the chest until November 20.
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