Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, goes to the polls in the first week of December. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been in power in the state for more than two and half decades, edging out its principal rival Congress out of the electoral running. This year, however, the traditionally bipolar race has become a three-way contest with the entry of the Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
In an interview with Moneycontrol, Sanjay Kumar, professor at the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), spoke about the political stakes in the ongoing Gujarat election, what it means for the key political parties, what policy issues it is being contested on, and the impact if any it will have on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
CSDS-Lokniti conducted a series of governance surveys in poll-bound Gujarat last month. Kumar too travelled to the state to gauge its political pulse. Edited excerpts:
The BJP has been in power in Gujarat for 27 years now. Why do you think it continues to dominate the state’s politics and why has the Congress fallen behind?
I think BJP has a very strong party structure in Gujarat which has been there for a very long time now, including the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS). Ever since Narendra Modi became the prime minister, the BJP has become more entrenched in the state because of the question of identity. Gujaratis take pride in ‘their person’ being the PM of the country and that they need to strengthen his hand.
So even if some people may have unease with the (current) state government, they still want to vote for the BJP. The question of identity is playing a very strong role. This is the reason the Congress is lagging behind despite having a sizeable support base of 38-40 percent vote share in the past.
Modi recently coined the slogan "Aa Gujarat, mai banavyu chhe" (I have made this Gujarat). With Kejriwal’s entry in this election, do you think there might be a narrative around a son of the soil versus outsider?
The son of the soil narrative is already there, people talk about bada (big) pradhan while referring to Modi. He represents Gujarat at the national level and India at the international level and this is the son of the soil theory that is working in the favour of the BJP. The narrative that AAP is an outsider, I don’t see that building in Gujarat. The pitch of the campaign is all about Modi and same was the narrative in the Himachal Pradesh campaign.
AAP has also thrown its hat in the ring. How do you see its prospects?
For AAP, there is a big curiosity element among Gujaratis and it has gathered momentum. People have started losing hope in the Congress and there is a perception that it is not able to win elections. For those who in a normal situation people would not have thought of voting for AAP, it is an option now. Seventy percent of support for AAP is due to their own effort and 30 percent has been contributed by the Congress.
I am not sure if the attraction is enough to put up a challenge for the BJP. Yes, they have been able to establish their footprint but I don’t think it is so visible enough to upset the political calculation for the BJP this time.
Which policy issues do you think are centre stage in this election? Do you think there is a clash of development models?
I don’t think that the BJP is contesting this election on the Gujarat model, they have sold that phrase long back. This is an election more on the identity of PM Modi and the pride associated with it. They are not talking about this also because AAP is making development as the pitch of this election. BJP thinks that if they also talk about the Gujarat model of development, it will result into playing into the AAP’s hand. Then it would be seen as AAP building a narrative and BJP responding to that. They have kept it aside and the election is being contested on a son of the soil narrative. It is in the interest of the BJP to keep that aside—it is more about future promises and why it is possible is due to PM Modi.
Being Modi’s home state and with the general election due in less than 18 months, what impact do you think the Gujarat results will have on 2024?
The only possibility that the result of the Gujarat election has an impact on 2024 is if the BJP performs badly in the state. But that is not going to happen. That is why, I would say, these results will have no impact on how the 2024 election will unfold and what the electoral verdict of 2024 will be. I would still say that Gujarat’s verdict would have some implications on the 2024 contest. If the Congress performs badly in Gujarat, its prospects for 2024 will get further weakened and bleak. That is the limited implication of the Gujarat verdict.
When you say if the Congress performs ‘badly’, what would the marker be?
Basically, the Congress ending with between 20 and 25 percent vote share and with 15-20 seats. This I would consider as a bad performance for the Congress.
CSDS has done a series of pre-poll governance surveys in Gujarat. You were also traveling in the state. What according to you is its most remarkable finding?
It is difficult to say what was the most remarkable finding but I would say two things. One, an eye-opener for those outside Gujarat and for those who think it is a state where everything is rosy—when we asked the question about corruption, a lot of people believed there was a lot of corruption in Gujarat. Unemployment rate is considered to be very high.
People expressed concerns about the steep price rise which is not unusual because it is high in other states as well. On the other hand, the narrative that AAP is trying to build about government schools and hospitals, I did not see very negative opinions by people on these issues. People have a lot of support for basic governance issues.
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