The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will finalize its seat-sharing formula for Bihar only after the Election Commission announces the poll schedule, according to sources in the BJP cited by NDTV. The move, they said, is designed to curb last-minute desertions by ticket hopefuls who might otherwise switch parties if denied a nomination.
Reports suggest the Election Commission is expected to declare the election dates in the first half of October. With the current Assembly’s term ending on November 22, the entire poll process must conclude before then.
Preliminary negotiations among allies are already underway, but BJP insiders told NDTV that the final call will be taken only after the dates are notified. “A last-minute announcement can potentially prevent leaders from jumping ship,” one BJP leader explained.
Much of the bargaining revolves around Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan. According to the report, he has demanded 40 seats, citing his party’s clean sweep of five out of five Lok Sabha constituencies in the 2024 general election. Paswan’s supporters have even projected him as a potential chief ministerial face, though he has publicly maintained that he accepts Nitish Kumar as the NDA’s CM candidate. His sharp criticism of the government, however, has not gone unnoticed.
“Chirag follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi and won’t leave NDA,” BJP leaders told NDTV. Yet, they admit his hardline stance is partly about “pacifying his followers.” While Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) is reluctant to grant him more than 20 seats, the BJP sees him as crucial to avoid a repeat of 2020. That year, Paswan’s undivided LJP contested 135 seats alone, won just one, but cut into JDU’s vote share significantly.
Going by the arithmetic of five Lok Sabha wins, Chirag Paswan argues he deserves at least 30 assembly seats. “His sentiments would be considered,” BJP sources told NDTV, but they emphasized that any final figure will depend on post-announcement negotiations.
The NDA’s larger seat-sharing plan is mostly in place, insiders revealed. Out of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats, the BJP and JDU are likely to contest over 100 each, with JD(U) possibly taking the larger share to reinforce its senior partner status. In 2020, the BJP contested 110 and won 74, while the JD(U) fought 115 but managed only 43.
Smaller allies, meanwhile, are also in the fray. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) is in the NDA fold this time. However, Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, which contested 13 seats with the NDA last time, is now with the opposition. Upendra Kushwaha’s Rastriya Lok Morcha had allied with AIMIM in 2020.
If BJP and JD(U) split 200 seats between themselves, the remaining three allies will have around 40 to divide, NDTV reported. That arithmetic means Chirag Paswan may ultimately have to scale down his ambitions.
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