PM Modi’s US visit stirs up both interest and scepticism

However, the mood in both capitals is upbeat, and the visit is being seen as a landmark in the Indo-US partnership.

From Washington, Modi will travel to Egypt for another state visit.
US President Joe Biden is laying out the red carpet to welcome Modi with a private dinner and a state banquet.

Modi has been invited to address the joint session of the US Congress, an honour that was given to him in 2014 too, making him the only Indian leader to do so twice.

Since the invitation came from House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Republican, it indicates bilateral support in the US for strengthening ties with India.

Vice President Kamala Harris and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken are also organising a lunch for him. Modi will also have curated engagements with American CEOs. The PM will attend a reception by the Indian diaspora too.

Sceptics say a free meal or a televised speech to Congress costs the US nothing.

They argue the ploy is to bring India into a tight American strategic embrace as a junior partner.

Indian officials point out that the visit is not only about pomp and show but also has a substantive part to reflect the steady growth in bilateral ties.
The US is India’s largest trade partner, and bilateral trade is over $191 billion. India has also bought over $20 billion of weapons from the US since 2008 and spent another $3 billion recently to acquire sophisticated US drones.

A number of agreements are likely to be signed during the Prime Minister’s visit, and there is likely to be a transfer of US technology for joint production of fighter jets in India.

The two sides may also formalise the iCet agreement—the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies—that can give India access to the areas of AI, quantum computing, 5G/6G telecommunication, biotech, space, and semiconductors.

The China angle

Modi’s visit takes place at a time when China’s growing assertion in the Indo-Pacific has raised serious concerns in the region.

India has also been engaged in a military face-off with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) since May 2020.

Both India and the US have a convergence on the challenge China poses in the Indo-Pacific.

The US fears there can be a war over Taiwan with China, and in recent months has been strengthening its military alliance.
But despite its concern vis-à-vis China, India has refused to join any military alliance.

India has also refused to condemn the ongoing Ukraine war.
Russia is India’s close strategic partner and chief supplier of weapons.
India also values Russia as a counterweight to China and feels the two countries are not natural allies but have been forced together because of US policy.

Though the Biden administration seems to have come to terms with the Indian stand on Russia, there are many American experts who refuse to see the Indian logic.

Some of them have also described India as a "fence-sitter," as it has refused to join the US-led military alliance against China.

Both issues are likely to come up during Modi’s interaction with the American leadership.

Former Indian ambassador to the US, Arun K Singh, argues that convergence in the Indo-US partnership should also allow space for occasional disagreements between the two sides.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra told newsmen on Monday that bilateral, regional, and global issues are likely to come up for discussion between Modi and Biden.

Indian experts point out that the US and India have different concepts of partnership.

The US essentially sees it as a military alliance, while India is inclined to have multiple partnerships, even with countries that have adversarial relations with each other, if it serves legitimate Indian national interests.
But the Indian establishment is a little worried about access to cutting-edge US technology that has been promised by senior Biden administration members.
Much of the effort has not produced the desired results because of the "maze of stringent legislative and administrative hurdles" in the US system.

However, this has not dampened the optimism of the two sides that Modi’s first state visit to the US will be able to elevate bilateral relations to a new high.