India's non-fossil fuel-based power generation capacity is likely to increase to 68.4 percent of the total installed capacity in 2031-32 from 42.5 percent at present as per the National Electricity Plan (NEP) unveiled by the power ministry on Wednesday.
This assumes significance in view of India's target of net zero by 2070 and having 500GW of renewable energy by 2030.
The NEP envisages that the share of non-fossil-based capacity is likely to increase to 57.4 percent by the end of 2026-27 and may likely to further increase to 68.4 percent by the end of 2031-32 from around 42.5 percent as on April 2023, a power ministry statement said.
According to the statement, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has notified the National Electricity Plan (NEP) (Vol-I Generation) for the period of 2022-32.
The plan document, which was released today (Wednesday) via e-Gazette, includes a review of the last five years (2017-22), a detailed plan for the next five years (2022-27) and the prospective plan for the next five years (2027-32).
According to the NEP document, the projected All India peak electricity demand and electrical energy requirement is 277.2 GW and 1907.8 BU (billion units) for the year 2026-27 and 366.4 GW and 2473.8 BU for the year 2031-32 as per 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS) Demand projections.
The Energy Requirement & Peak Demand are inclusive of the impact due to increased adoption of Electric Vehicles, Installation of Solar rooftops, Production of Green hydrogen, Saubhagya scheme etc, it stated.
Based on generation planning studies carried out under the purview of preparation of NEP for the period of 2022-27, the likely Installed generation Capacity for the year 2026-27 is 609,591 MW.
It would comprise 273,038 MW of conventional capacity (Coal-235,133MW, Gas24,824MW, Nuclear-13,080MW) and 336,553 MW of renewable based Capacity (Large Hydro-52,446 MW, Solar-185,566 MW Wind-72,895 MW, Small Hydro-5,200 MW, Biomass-13,000MW, Pump Storage Plants (PSP projects) -7446MW) along with BESS capacity (Battery Energy Storage System) of 8,680MW/34,720 MWh.
The likely Installed Capacity for the year 2031-32 is estimated to be 900,422 MW comprising 304,147 MW of conventional capacity (Coal-259,643 MW, Gas24,824MW, Nuclear-19,680MW) and 596,275MW of renewable based Capacity (Large Hydro-62,178 MW, Solar-364,566MW, Wind-121,895MW, Small Hydro-5450MW, Biomass-15,500 MW, PSP-26,686MW; excluding 5856 MW of likely Hydro based Imports) along with BESS (battery energy storage system) capacity of 47,244MW/236,220MWh.
The projection of total capacity addition is in line with the target of the country to achieve a non-fossil-based installed capacity of around 500 GW by the year 2029-30.
The average PLF (plant load factor or capacity utilisation) of the total installed coal capacity of 235.1 GW is likely to be about 58.4 per cent in 2026-27 and that of 259.6 GW of coal-based capacity is likely to be about 58.7 per cent in 2031-32.
As per the National Electricity Plan projections, the energy storage capacity of 16.13 GW/82.37 GWh with PSP-based storage of 7.45GW capacity and 47.65 GWh storage and BESS-based storage of 8.68 GW/ 34.72 GWh is required by the year 2026-27.
The storage capacity requirement increases to 73.93 GW (26.69 GW PSP and 47.24 GW BESS) with storage of 411.4 GWh (175.18 GWh from PSP and 236.22 GWh from BESS) by the year 2031-32.
The domestic coal requirement has been estimated to be 866.4 Million Tonnes for the year 2026-27 and 1025.8 Million Tonnes for the year 2031-32 and estimated requirement of 28.9 MT of coal imports for the plants designed to run on imported coal.
The total fund requirement for generation capacity addition for the period 2022-2027 is estimated to be Rs. 14,54,188 Crores and for the period 2027-2032 has been estimated to be Rs. 19,06,406 Crores.
The estimate of fund requirement for 2027-32 does not include advance action for the projects which may get commissioned after 31.03.2032.
The average emission factor is expected to reduce to 0.548 kg CO2/kWhnet in the year 2026-27 and to 0.430 kg CO2/kWhnet by the end of 2031-32.
As per section 3(4) of the Electricity Act, 2003, Central Electricity Authority has been mandated to prepare an NEP in accordance with the National Electricity Policy and notify such plan once in five years, it stated.
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