News18-IPSOS Exit Polls: Survey methodology used to predict results for Assembly elections 2019

In Haryana, of the total 90, 23 Assembly constituencies were selected to conduct the exit poll survey. As many as 138 individual polling station areas were selected for conducting interviews.

In each polling station, 25 voters were randomly selected for conducting the survey. These surveys were conducted outside the polling stations.

A total of 10,800 voters were interviewed from 72 Assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. In Haryana, the survey covered 3,450 voters from 23 Assembly constituencies.

Polling was conducted in multiple phases:

Stage 1: Following aspects were taken into consideration in the selection of Assembly constituencies:

> Constituencies where a party has not lost an election in the past two polls
> Constituencies where the winning margin is low
> Constituencies which flip-flop election to election
> Constituencies that have heavy-weight” candidates

Stage 2: In each Assembly constituency, six polling stations were selected using systematic random sampling (SRS) process.

Stage 3: Every third voter coming out of polling station was selected for the survey.

The survey was conducted on voting day. The interviewing process started when polls opened and continued throughout the day until polls closed to ensure better representation of voters, coming in at different times of the day.

For conducting exit interviews at polling stations in each selected constituency, the time cluster approach was used. The survey at each polling station was covered for one hour following survey protocol by three interviewers. All interviews were conducted using computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) method.

To overcome prejudice/response bias, election symbols, including party names, contesting in selected assembly constituency were shown on a tablet, displayed like ballot box screen. While asking a voting-related question, a virtual polling booth scenario was created, wherein the respondent was handed over the device (tablet) to mark the party they had voted for.