Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification from the Lok Sabha following his conviction in a 2019 defamation case by a Surat sessions court has both immediate and long-term implications for the Nehru-Gandhi scion’s political career, the Grand Old Party’s future plans, and the prospects of opposition unity.
The fast-paced political developments witnessed in the capital over the past two days have raised a series of questions: will Rahul Gandhi’s conviction and subsequent disqualification boost his image by casting him as a martyr, will it galvanise the Congress cadre to put up an effective fight against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), could Priyanka Gandhi Vadra replace her brother if he is banished from the electoral arena for an extended period of time, and will this make it easier for opposition parties to put up a united front against the BJP.
As the Congress drew up plans to fight this battle both on the legal and the political front, the party’s first priority was to challenge Rahul Gandhi’s conviction and the two-year jail sentence in a higher court at the earliest. It is critical for Gandhi to get relief from the courts for if he fails to do so, the law bars him from contesting elections for eight years, including his two-year jail term. This means that the former Wayanad MP will have to sit out the next Lok Sabha election.
This has serious ramifications for him personally and for the Congress, better known as a “Nehru-Gandhi” party. Despite lingering doubts about his leadership qualities, large sections of the Congress continue to look up to members of the party’s First Family as the party’s guardians.
Particularly so after Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, which helped rebrand and reinvent the Congress leader who was, till then, seen as a non-serious politician who lacked a connect with the people.
The Congress needs Rahul Gandhi to lead its cadre in the ensuing fight against the BJP, and it can be expected that he will take on the Modi government with the same aggression he has displayed so far.
But if he remains embroiled in legal battles and is unable to avoid a two-year jail term, it will not be surprising if party loyalists soon raise the demand, “Priyanka lao, Desh bachao” (Bring Priyanka, Save the Country), given the party’s total identification with the Nehru-Gandhi family.
Priyanka was quick to launch a sharp attack against Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday following Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification. But if she fails to rise to the occasion, it could lead to a scramble among party leaders to emerge as the face of the Congress.
For the present, these developments can galvanise Congress workers, who are already preparing to launch a nation-wide “save democracy” movement to protest Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification by painting the BJP as dictatorial and authoritarian. The real challenge here is sustaining these protests as the party prepares for important elections in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh.
Priyanka Gandhi is learnt to have remarked at an internal meeting on Friday that the Congress should give a befitting reply to the BJP by winning Karnataka. Consequently, it has become vital for the Congress to unseat the BJP government in the southern state.
However, Congress strategists will have to put on their thinking caps as they cannot run a campaign whose chief focus is the treatment meted out to Rahul Gandhi. Similarly, the catch phrase “democracy is in danger” is far too nebulous to resonate with the people.
The Congress should be mindful that it could end up playing into the hands of the BJP if it is seen to be expending all its energy and time defending the Nehru-Gandhi family, with nothing more concrete to offer to the voter. The Congress has also to factor in the latest weapon unleashed by the BJP, describing Rahul Gandhi as “anti-OBC” for the remarks he made about the Modi community in 2019. This campaign will gather momentum in the coming days.
The ruthless manner in which the Modi government has proceeded against Rahul Gandhi has opened up the possibility of uniting the disparate opposition parties. The action against the Congress leader has come in for strong condemnation from a host of opposition leaders, including Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav, K Chandrasekhar Rao, and YSR Jagan Reddy, who have not been particularly enamoured by the Congress.
The heat that all opposition parties are facing from the BJP and the fear that similar action could be meted out to them next could push them into putting aside their differences and forging a joint anti-BJP front.
Several regional leaders, like West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, have been unwilling to accept Rahul Gandhi as the leader of an anti-BJP opposition front as it would make him an automatic contender for the Prime Minister’s post.
Banerjee, for instance, believes she has the necessary skill sets and the experience to take on the country’s top job. If Rahul Gandhi is out of the electoral race, it would make it easier for these leaders to do business with the Congress in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The leadership race would then be wide open.
However, the road ahead will not be easy. This initial support for the Congress could easily dissipate in the coming months as the Grand Old Party is battling many regional opposition parties in the states. Also, political realities and turf battles come into full play when parties get down to the nitty-gritty of seat-sharing. Even ideologically-aligned parties like the Shiv Sena and the BJP could not continue their alliance as political survival took clear precedence.
Though disparate opposition parties have come together in the past, it has never been a harmonious relationship. It was, at best, a marriage of convenience.
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