India is poised to enter the summer season with one of the warmest March months on record, and above-average temperatures throughout most of the month threaten to cut yields of the maturing wheat crop, two weather bureau sources said.
India, the world's second-biggest wheat producer, is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports, after three consecutive years of poor crop yields since 2022.
Higher temperatures could reduce yields for the fourth straight year, trimming overall production and forcing authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate overseas shipments to tide over shortages.
"March is going to be unusually hot this year. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal for most of the month," said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who did not wish to be identified ahead of the official announcement from the weather office.
The IMD is expected to release its forecast for March temperatures on Friday.
Day temperatures are expected to start rising from the second week of March, and by the end of the month, maximum temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) in many states, the official said.
After a sharp rise in temperatures in February and March shrivelled the wheat crop, India was forced to ban exports of the staple in 2022.
India's wheat-growing states in the central and northern belts are likely to see a sudden jump in maximum temperatures from the second week of March, with temperatures potentially rising up to 6 degrees Celsius above average, said the second IMD official.
"March is not going to be conducive for wheat, chickpea and rapeseed. Crops could experience heat stress," he said.
Winter crops, such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions throughout their growth cycle for optimal yields.
Indian wheat prices jumped to a record high this month due to dwindling supplies.
"February was pretty warm. If March stays hotter than normal, wheat production could take a big hit," said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.
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