India may still exceed the 143-crore population projection for 2027 if past trends are any guide, a Moneycontrol analysis shows. While fertility rates have fallen slightly below government estimates only in 2023, it ran above official assumptions in 2016-22, keeping the population growth target above expectations.
The government is preparing to launch India’s first digital census in April 2026. The exercise will be conducted in two phases, with March 1, 2027, as the reference period for most of the country. Exceptions include Ladakh and snow-bound non-synchronous areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, where October 1, 2026, will serve as the reference date.
Fertility rates overshot projections
Government projections had pegged the total fertility rate (TFR) at 2.13 through 2016–2020, easing to 1.94 from 2021 onwards. In reality, fertility averaged 2.16 children per woman during 2016–2020—consistently above the estimates. It was only in 2023 that actual fertility fell to 1.9, marginally below the projected 1.94.
Census records reveal a consistent pattern: projected populations have repeatedly trailed the actual headcount. In 1981, projections were short by 1.7 percent; in 1991 and 2001, by around 1.1–1.6 percent. By 2011, India’s population was 121.1 crore—1.6 percent higher than projected.
On average, projections have underestimated the actual count by about 1.5 percent over the last four decades. If this historical bias continues, India’s population in 2027 could surpass the projected 143.4 crore, even with fertility now declining.
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