Haryana Exit Poll Predictions: Advantage Congress, setback for BJP – 5 big takeaways

The indicators, if they hold true once the results are declared, show that the Congress has been able to carry the momentum it gained in the Lok Sabha elections into the Assembly polls. The Congress had managed to cut the BJP’s tally by half and limited to 5 of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state, down from the clean sweep in the 2019 elections.

Anti-incumbency

The BJP, which has been in power in the state since 2014, is seen falling short of majority in Haryana, if the exit poll predictions are to be believed. While several factors could have added to the BJP’s projected tally in Haryana, the anti-incumbency factor could be the biggest among them. The change of guard midway into the second term, as BJP replaced CM Manohar Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, is also believed to have been guided by the same understanding. Factors like Jat anger, unemployment, farmers’ angst and the resentment over the Agnipath scheme appear to have dominated the larger voter sentiment.

Boost to Bhupinder Hooda

The predictions, if they translate into results, will come as a shot in the arm for Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a two-time chief minister and the Leader of Opposition in the Haryana Assembly. The Congress war horse, who refused to hang his boots, has battled infighting from within as well as the BJP. A result for Congress in line with the exit poll projections will also strengthen Hooda’s claim to the post of chief minister.

No Modi factor

The Haryana elections were marked by the near-absence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the campaign unlike previous outings where the BJP undisputedly banked on the PM’s face to sail it through. The Prime Minister addressed only four poll rallies in the state, far fewer than the previous elections. Unlike its strategy for state elections, the BJP also went ahead and announced Nayab Saini as the chief ministerial face if the party returns to power. This was characteristically different from the BJP’s usual strategy of contesting elections solely under the Modi banner.

A Stronger Congress

A victory in Haryana, as the exit polls have predicted, would also put the Congress on stronger footing against the BJP nationally. Haryana is a key state in the Hindi heartland which traditionally saw a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP. A loss in Haryana would see a key heartland state slip out of the BJP’s hands, a significant setback for a party that draws a majority of its popularity from the region. The victory will also give the Congress a huge impetus within the INDIA bloc as it positions itself as the biggest challenger to the BJP nationally.