Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017: Patidar movement's journey and how it could dent BJP's game

History of the Patidar movement

On July 6, 2015, Patidar youth (many of whom are surnamed Patel) began demonstrations across the state seeking Other Backward Castes (OBC) status for the community. The reservation would entitle Patidars a quota of educational institutions and government jobs. PAAS was founded during these demonstrations.

Towards the end of the month, Patidar demonstrations started turning violent and the police at one point arrested 152 people.

The number of demonstrations only increased in the following months in spite of the government's attempt to curtail the protests by blocking the internet.

Media reports state that around 149 rallies were held in Patidar strongholds in a span of 55 days.

Police force was present at a mega rally in Ahmedabad where around five lakh demonstrators were in attendance. The then Chief Minister Anandiben Patel, however, denied ordering use of force.

Following their dispersal from the rally, demonstrators turned violent and at least 15 cases of arson were reported. The quota stir led to at least 12 deaths and over 200 people getting injured.

Over the next two years, Hardik Patel and other community leaders continued to hold rallies and seek reservation.

Patidars have dented BJP before

In November-December that year, several Patidar leaders urged Patidars to vote for the Congress in the civic body polls.

As a result, the Congress won at least 21 of the 31 district panchayats along with winning 110 of the 230 taluka panchayats that went to poll. The BJP retained six municipal corporations.

Patidars organisations supporting Congress

In November this year, Congress gained support of the most prominent Patidar organisation, the PAAS, after it promised giving Patidars reservation without interfering with the current quota of 49 percent.

"My fight in Gujarat is against the BJP and that is why we will directly or indirectly support the Congress (in the elections) as it has accepted our demand for reservation," PAAS leader Hardik Patel said, adding that "Congress has promised to include our demand in its manifesto."

While announcing PAAS' support to Congress, Patel said that the proposed reservation formula had been accepted by other community leaders as well, including heads of religious bodies such as Khodal Dham and Umiya Dham.

Patidar agitation's effect on Gujarat election

Patidars are largely concentrated in the Saurashtra region. The region has historically been a BJP stronghold. In 2012, the ruling party had won 45 out of the region's 54 seats.

In 2017, the agitation seems to have not only dented the BJP but also boosted its main rival, the Congress. According to the ABP News-CSDS opinion poll, 49 percent voters are likely to vote for Congress while 43 percent voters are likely to vote for the BJP.

The BJP is facing stiff competition for several seats in the region, including that of Chief Minister Vijay Rupani's constituency Rajkot (West) where the party had won with a margin of nearly 25,000 votes in 2012.

While Patidars make up around 12-14 percent of Gujarat's total population, they need not vote for one party as a bloc. There are four sub-castes within Patidars — Leuva, Kadva, Anjana and Satpanthi.

Traditionally, the Kadva Patels used to vote for the BJP. In 2012, BJP lost out on votes from the Leuvas in Saurashtra as former chief minister Keshubhai Patel's party fought separately. In 2014, however, both sub-castes voted for the BJP. Further, Patidars in the rural and urban areas have voted differently.

The opinion poll also states that Congress is likely to receive two percent Patidar votes more than the BJP across the state.

But, Hardik Patel's own popularity had fallen from 61 percent in August to 58 percent in November.

On Thursday, Hardik Patel said that he would wind up a stir if BJP wins more than 10 seats in the Saurashtra-Kutch region.