After voting for the Delhi Assembly election ends at 6 pm on February 5, all eyes will be on the exit polls.
The electoral battle, which is expected to be a three-way contest between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress, witnessed a high-octane campaign.
Voters from all 70 constituencies in Delhi are participating in the single-phase election on February 5. The poll result will be announced on February 8.
“The Commission notifies the period between 7.00 am to 6.30 pm on 05.02.2025 (Wednesday) as the period during which conducting and publishing or publicising exit poll by means of the print or electronic media or dissemination in any other manner whatsoever, the result of any exit poll in connection with the aforesaid General and bye elections, shall be prohibited,” a notice by the Election Commission stated.
What are exit polls?
An exit poll asks voters about which political party they support after they have cast their votes in an election. This distinguishes it from an opinion poll, which is conducted before the elections. An exit poll aims to indicate the prevailing trends in an election, including the factors such as issues, personalities, and loyalties that have influenced voters.
Are exit polls always correct?
Estimating vote shares and predicting seat outcomes are the key challenges while conducting exit polls. The swing model, which relies on past election results to estimate vote shares, is intricate and influenced by factors like geographic location, caste, religion, and economic class. Changes in political alliances between elections can also affect predictions. Furthermore, accurately predicting seats requires significant time and resources, rendering the process labor-intensive.
Since its debut in 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has consistently outperformed exit poll predictions, which have struggled to gauge the full extent of its dominance. While the average of exit polls accurately forecasted a hung Assembly in 2013, they underestimated AAP’s sweeping victories in 2015 and 2020, predicting much tighter contests than what ultimately unfolded.
When and where to watch exit polls?
You can track the latest exit poll predictions and analysis right here on Moneycontrol.com, along with the most comprehensive Delhi assembly election coverage. Additionally, exit polls will be broadcast live on CNN-News18.
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