Civilian killings could complicate Naga peace process, result in retaliatory attacks 

In a statement to the media, the Indian Army claimed it received “credible intelligence of likely movement of insurgents.” It also said the “cause of the unfortunate loss of lives is being investigated at the highest level”. The Army has ordered a Court of Inquiry into the killing of civilians in Nagaland.

It’s pertinent to mention here that several states in the region, including Nagaland, come under the purview of the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act, 1958 or AFSPA, which guarantees maximum immunity to security forces involved in anti-insurgency operations.

The killing of civilians has revived the demand for a repeal of the AFSPA, seen as one of India’s most draconian laws. Terming the Nagaland incident as a “clear case of abuse” of the AFSPA, Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio said his government has asked the Centre to remove the law from the State.

Meghalaya Chief Minister and chief of the National People’s Party (NPP) Conrad Sangma also joined the chorus against AFSPA, saying the law has failed to resolve the issue of insurgency. He also stated that his party would continue to fight until it is repealed.

“The central forces operate under the command of the local police under the AFSPA and they are deployed to aid the civil administration. The central forces cannot operate on their own and in this case, the FIR makes it absolutely clear that the local police were not informed by the central forces. Justice must be established through a fast-track trial,” said Suhas Chakma, Director of the Delhi-based Rights and Risks Analysis Group.

Babloo Loitongbam, a leading human rights activist from Manipur, is also of the view that the demand to repeal AFSPA would gain further momentum in the wake of the Nagaland incident.

Likely impact on peace process

Loitongbam believes that the tragic incident would cast a shadow over the ongoing peace process with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), better known as NSCN (I-M), and other rebel groups in the Northeast.

“Trust is a key component of the peace process, and reckless killings evaporate the painstaking efforts to build confidence on both sides of the conflict,” Loitongbam, executive director of Imphal-based Human Rights Alert, told this writer.

The NSCN (I-M) has condemned the killing of the civilians in the strongest terms. “The Indian security forces will never be able to wash its hands off, smeared with the blood of innocent Nagas no matter how it come(s) out with a nonsensical statement which is linked to credible intelligence reports of movement of insurgents,” it said in a statement issued to the media.

“…Notwithstanding the ongoing Indo-Naga political dialogue that has seen much fruition during the period running more than two decades, the violence against the Nagas continues unabated. This is one of the most unfortunate incidents of the Indo-Naga ceasefire signed in 1997,” the rebel group added.

In August 2015, the Narendra Modi government had signed a “framework agreement” with the NSCN (I-M) to end India’s oldest insurgency. Subsequently, in October 2019, the two sides claimed to have concluded talks but did not sign any accord. Later, the NSCN (I-M) had expressed its displeasure over former interlocutor RN Ravi’s (the current Tamil Nadu governor) alleged “mishandling of Naga political issue” and demanded his ouster.

Former Intelligence Bureau special director Akshay Mishra, who has replaced Ravi as the government’s representative for the talks, could face new challenges, especially in the wake of the civilians’ deaths.

“The response from Naga tribes appears to suggest that anger is widespread and animates wounds from the past,” said Richard Kamei, a researcher from Manipur.

According to Brigadier BK Ponwar (retired), former commandant of the Indian Army’s Counter-Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School, located in Mizoram’s Vairengte, the support of the local population is of paramount importance in counter-insurgency operations.

“Whichever side the population goes to, that side, I won’t say wins but that side achieves success. To give you an example, the Mizo peace accord was signed in 1986 after 20 years of the insurgency, because people felt this was going to lead nowhere…Today Mizoram is the most peaceful and wonderful state,” he said.

“The same thing happened in Nagaland where after several decades, NSCN-(IM) decided to join the peace process…but if you go and start killing Nagas, they are going to retaliate…” said Brigadier Ponwar, who currently heads the Counter Terrorism of Jungle Warfare College (CTJWC) at Kanker in Chhattisgarh.

According to the army veteran, the killing of Oting villagers in Mon would give a bad name to the counter-insurgency campaign. “Nagaland is moving towards peace but such incidents give the entire counter-insurgency campaign a break. It creates a break and takes you 10-15 years back. Now, to win the hearts and minds of the population, it will require another 10-15 years,” he added.

Condemning the action of 21 Para SF, the retired brigadier said: “The special forces should not have opened fire... firing is the last resort in counter-insurgency operations [after everything else fails], please understand. These people [the villagers] did not even open fire…”

A separate special investigation team (SIT) constituted by the State government is expected to submit its report on the firing incident within a month. Whatever be the outcome, the Central government is likely to face a major hurdle in bridging the trust deficit caused by the Mon killings.

(Jayanta Kalita is a senior journalist and author based in Delhi. He writes on issues related to India’s Northeast. The views expressed are personal.)