Caste, development, unemployment: Can NDA counter Opposition’s triple threat to Modi-Nitish?  

From inaugurating the Jayaprakash Narayan International Airport’s new integrated terminal building to flagging off the first locomotive for export in Saran district, the PM has been stressing that the projects would not only accelerate infrastructure growth but also improve the quality of life for residents.

“Bihar will prosper and play a big role in the prosperity of the country,” Modi said. He also accused previous regimes of turning poverty into Bihar’s fate through corruption and inefficiency.

PM Modi’s engagement with Bihar can be seen as BJP’s conscious effort to project itself as the indispensable nucleus of power in the state.

Caste pitch

Bihar is a state known for its deep-rooted caste matrix that has been the single biggest factor in deciding electoral outcomes. While NDA has managed to duck the threat from the combined vote bank of Muslims and Yadavs through some sharp social engineering, the Opposition’s pitch of a caste census and the BJP being anti-Constitution held up in neighbouring UP and elsewhere in the Lok Sabha elections.

However, the Centre’s announcement of including caste data in the population Census queered the pitch. The fact that Nitish was the first CM to conduct a caste survey and implement it in Bihar came as an added advantage.

Also, Bihar's caste equations may give Nitish Kumar an advantage. A Kurmi by caste, he built a dedicated base of Mahadalits, Kurmis, Koeris, extremely backward classes, and religious minorities. He also enjoys popularity among women due to his welfare schemes such as free cycle distribution for school girls and his liquor prohibition policy.

Development and unemployment

PM Modi has been calling RJD and Congress “anti-Bihar and anti-investment”.  In response, the opposition parties have been highlighting the states increasing poverty, unemployment and crime rates during the Nitish regime. However, they have not really come up with a concrete developmental blueprint.

Tejashwi’s major promises include the formation of a youth commission and 100 per cent domicile policy for Bihar government jobs among others.

"If you will look at the NITI Aayog's report, Bihar is no.1 in poverty, migration, and unemployment. There are no industries. If they (the NDA government) had even opened one sugar mill, then you tell me. Bihar is at the bottom in terms of education and health?" Tejashwi said at Vaishya Representative Conference in Patna this week.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party is also set to make its debut in the Bihar polls. Hepromised to create jobs if his party wins. His party, Jan Suraaj, has also strategically picked a school bag as its symbol. The symbol likely conveys Jan Suraaj's mission of quality education for the youth of Bihar.

Congress leader Kanhaiya Kumar also raised these issues during his campaigns. During his recent padayatra “Palayan Roko, Naukri Do” (stop migration, give jobs), Kumar attacked Nitish Kumar for allegedly failing the state in the last 20 years.

Will these efforts be enough to defeat the NDA?

The Congress and RJD have decided to fight the polls together. However, seat-sharing numbers have not been finalised.  In the last assembly polls, while the RJD had a reasonable strike rate, winning 75 of the 144 seats it contested, the Congress secured only 19 of the 70 seats it contested.

“Even the RJD knows the Congress will likely underperform in the opposition camp if given a considerable number of seats, as demonstrated in previous Hindi heartland elections,” a BJP insider told News18.

While the Mahagathbandhan gears up to defeat the Nitish Kumar government, internal issues may impact the alliance. The Congress does not want to be the “B team” of RJD in Bihar polls. However, its electoral defeats at both central and national levels may hinder the RJD from giving many seats to Congress.

The Congress also reportedly has reservations over what it sees as a “one-dimensional” campaign of the RJD, which is based on caste factors and, particularly, the Muslim-Yadav base. It wants to project a more modern and inclusive image.

The BJP criticism of the RJD for allegedly disrespecting BR Ambedkar’s photograph on party chief Lalu Prasad Yadav’s birthday may also hurt the Mahagathbandhan.

According to a 2022 survey, Scheduled Castes (SCs) make up 19.65 per cent and Scheduled Tribes (STs) 1.68 per cent of Bihar’s population. With over 20 per cent of Bihar’s population potentially angered by the RJD and Congress, the BJP may see this as an opportunity to capitalise on this sentiment just before the elections.

With the CM’s support and buoyed by its winning streak in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi, the BJP is aiming to replicate its poll performance in Bihar.