Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar's proclivity for shifting loyalties is a running political joke in the state. But for his allies, it's a constant, unsettling possibility - one that could shun them abruptly to the opposition benches without notice.
Fortunately for BJP, the results of the Bihar election has left the party on a firm footing which will insulate it from the JD(U)'s chief capricious nature and ensure its continuity in the government even if Nitish jumps ship again.
BJP has won a solid 89 seats in the 243-member assembly, its second best performance after 2010. The JD(U) came a close second with 85 seats.
However, the Mahagathbandhan’s disastrous performance means its parties cannot cobble together a majority even if the JD(U) were to join them.
The opposition alliance managed to win just 35 seats, with RJD leading the pack at 25. Combined with JD(U)'s tally, the figure reaches 120, still 2 short of a majority in the assembly. This means that even in a hypothetical scenario of another Nitish Kumar flip, the Mahagathbandhan with JD(U) will need the support of smaller parties like AIMIM to form the government.
This will be a bleak possibility since several parties in the Grand Alliance have just a handful of MLAs, with most having a history of legislators breaking ranks.
On the other hand, BJP not only has 89 legislators of its own but also has the firm backing of Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV) with 19 MLAs. It has also grown closer to smaller allies like Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM (S) which has 5 seats and Rashtriya Lok Morcha's (RLM) Upendra Kushwaha which has 4 seats.
This was not the case in the previous assembly since JD(U) ditched BJP two years after the results and formed a government with Mahagathbandhan. Back then, RJD's 75 seats combined with JD(U)'s 43 and Congress's 19 gave the consolidation a comfortable majority in the assembly - enough to sideline BJP.
Moreover, BJP is also in a strong position compared to JD(U) since it has a government at the Centre. According to a report in The Times of India, there is a view that the party may induct RLM's Kushwaha into the Union Cabinet, which will further help ensure support of allies. It has already given ministerial berths to both LJP(RV) and HAM(S).
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