The climax of the high-stakes electoral battles in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will unfold on Saturday as the counting of votes is held for the final two elections of 2024. Along with Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the results of the bypolls for 48 assembly constituencies and two Lok Sabha seats will also be declared - which will further shape the political landscape of the country.
The counting of votes will begin at 8am across multiple centres in these states and early trends are expected within the first few minutes.
Exit polls have given a clear edge to the BJP-led Mahayuti in Maharashtra, which is hoping to win the actual mandate of the people two years after it seized power in the state following the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
In Jharkhand, exit polls were starkly divided between the ruling JMM-Congress alliance and the rival NDA-led BJP. A poll of polls has predicted a hung assembly. Four exit polls predicted a clear victory for BJP-led NDA while three said that JMM-Congress alliance will keep the state.
All eyes are now on the official results, which will shape the post-Lok Sabha election narrative and set the ball rolling for the Delhi and Bihar elections in 2025.
Complete coverage of assembly elections 2024
On Friday, the markets also made a dramatic comeback after seven straight weeks of correction, shaking off a turbulent week dotted with bad news. Experts attributed the rally to traders discounting a win for the BJP-led Mahayuti in the Maharashtra assembly elections.
Mahayuti vs MVA: High-voltage showdown
Maharashtra witnessed a battle royale between the Mahayuti comprising BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of Congress, Sharad Pawar's NCP and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena.
The weeks-long political campaign witnessed high drama and controversy as the six major parties went all out to woo voters in the high-stakes clash.
The ruling Mahayuti is betting big on the "game-changer" Ladki Bahin scheme, which benefits over 2.3 crore women in the state. It also targeted the MVA over issues like jobs, crime and farmer distress, contrasting its own governance in the past two years with the MVA-led administration from 2019 to 2022.
MVA has repeatedly targeted Mahayuti for running a polarising campaign, saying that slogans like "batenge to katenge", "dharma yuddha" and "vote jihad" are aimed at splitting the state along communal lines. It has also targeted the Mahayuti over issues like crime and corruption, alleging that the government has plundered Maharashtra of thousands of crores of rupees.
What's at stake for each party
In Maharashtra, the BJP aims to recover from the setback of the Lok Sabha elections and rebuild momentum, especially after its strong performance in the recent Haryana polls. The party also seeks to solidify its position as the dominant force in a state traditionally led by regional outfits.
For Eknath Shinde (Shiv Sena) and Ajit Pawar (NCP), this election represents a battle for the true legacy of their parties and a test of voter loyalty.
READ: Maharashtra sees uptick in voter turnout at 66%, Kolhapur leads with 76.63%
The alliance is also looking to recover from a poor showing in the Lok Sabha elections, where Mahayuti won only 17 of the state’s 48 seats, while the MVA secured 30.
For the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the election is an opportunity for a political reset.
The MVA hopes to recover from the setback of 2022, when Eknath Shinde’s rebellion led to the collapse of the Uddhav Thackeray-led government.
Congress, building on its strong performance in the Lok Sabha polls, aims to further consolidate its position in the state. For Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, the elections are crucial to reaffirm their base and legitimise their factions following vertical splits in their parties.
NDA vs INDIA in Jharkhand
Jharkhand is likely heading for a photo finish between the JMM-Congress alliance and the rival BJP-led NDA, if exit polls are to be believed.
Jharkhand witnessed its fifth assembly election in its 24-year history, a period marked by political instability, with seven individuals occupying the chief minister's chair across 13 different tenures.
Notably, no party has ever been re-elected for a second consecutive term.
Both the NDA and INDIA bloc pulled out all the stops to ensure their victories in the upcoming elections with the former concentrating on “infiltration, corruption and scams” while the latter focused on tribal rights and welfare issues and how they were being harassed.
The BJP’s central welfare schemes and the arrest and subsequent bail of chief minister Hemant Soren by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) dominated the political discourse in the state.
The ruling alliance claims the arrest was politically motivated, as Soren was detained in a money laundering case linked to an alleged land fraud.
Bypoll battle
All eyes will also be on the results for the crucial bypolls, which includes 9 seats in Uttar Pradesh as well as the Lok Sabha bypolls in Wayanad and Nanded.
In UP, bypolls were held in Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar), Karhal (Mainpuri), Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), Ghaziabad, Majhawan (Mirzapur), Sisamau (Kanpur city), Khair (Aligarh), Phulpur (Prayagraj), and Kundarki (Moradabad).
The bypolls in UP assume significance since it's the first electoral clash between BJP and the SP-Congress alliance (part of the broader INDIA bloc) since the Lok Sabha polls. In the general election, BJP suffered a big blow, losing 30 seats in the political crucial state after a stellar show by the SP-Congress alliance.
The UP bypolls are seen as a battle of prestige between the two sides, with BJP looking to reclaim its dominance in the state and SP-Congress hoping to sustain the momentum.
Exit polls have predicted that BJP will win six of the 9 seats in the UP bypolls. If the predictions hold, it will be a vote of confidence for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government.
Bypolls were also held in Rajasthan (7), West Bengal (6), Assam (5), Bihar (4), Punjab (4), Karnataka (3), Kerala (2), Madhya Pradesh (2), and Sikkim (2), Chhattisgarh (1), Gujarat (1), Meghalaya (1) and Uttarakhand (1).
Meanwhile, the attention will also be on the Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll, which marks the debut of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The Wayanad seat fell vacant after Rahul Gandhi decided to represent Rae Bareli in Lok Sabha. He had won both the seats.
If Priyanka wins, all three Gandhis - Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka - will be in Parliament at the same time.
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