Akhilesh Yadav's 2027 UP election gambit: Will it pay off like 2024 or backfire like 2017?

The decision to extend the INDIA alliance into the 2027 elections may be rooted in the unexpectedly strong performance of the SP-Congress combine in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Together, they won 43 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, a dramatic turnaround from past performances. SP alone bagged 37 seats, emerging as the single-largest party in the state, while Congress won six.

Compare this with 2017, when SP and Congress contested the assembly elections under the banner of "UP ke ladke" — a campaign that failed to resonate with voters and resulted in a sweeping BJP victory. The difference in 2024, according to political observers, was the clarity of seat-sharing, the consolidation of backward caste, Dalit, and minority votes under SP’s PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) strategy, and Congress’s appeal to protect the Constitution and democratic institutions.

Political analyst Dr. Ratan Srivastava, a Lucknow-based observer of UP politics, believes this is a moment of realism and recognition. “Akhilesh has matured politically. Unlike 2017, this time the alliance wasn’t based on a slogan or charisma, but on a clear social arithmetic and anti-BJP sentiment. He sees that ideological convergence with Congress — especially around social justice and constitutional values — can give him staying power in 2027,” he said.

Congress gains without overshadowing

Congress’s six-seat tally might appear modest in numbers, but in context, it signals a revival. Two of their MPs — Rakesh Rathore from Sitapur and Ujjwal Raman Singh from Allahabad — were formerly SP leaders who switched to Congress just before the elections under a seat-sharing arrangement. Their victory on Congress symbols suggests that the alliance benefitted both parties.

Dr. Madhavi Kashyap, a political scientist from Allahabad, argues that “The SP allowed Congress space to breathe, and in return, Congress became a credible junior partner. This balance was absent in 2017 when Congress was perceived as riding piggyback. The new arrangement is more symbiotic.”

Congress’s other wins in traditional strongholds like Raebareli and Amethi, and its penetration in regions like Saharanpur (Imran Masood) and Barabanki (Tanju Punia), also indicate that the party’s grassroots network, though weaker than before, still holds strategic value.

Akhilesh’s strong attack on the BJP over the Waqf (Amendment) Act, where he accused the ruling party of behaving like a “mafia” to grab land, hints at the aggressive tone SP may adopt in 2027. By anchoring the campaign around constitutional threats, communal polarization, and caste-based exclusion, the SP-Congress alliance aims to retain its momentum.

Yet, the BJP is unlikely to take this lying down. It will frame the alliance as opportunistic, projecting the SP and Congress as symbols of “appeasement politics.” The return of ideological polarization is a given.

Professor Naeem Ansari, a veteran political analyst from AMU, warns, “The BJP has deep roots in UP. While SP-Congress had a good Lok Sabha outing, assembly elections are a different game. Local issues, caste rivalries, and organizational strength matter more. BJP still has a formidable booth-level presence.”

A senior Samajwadi Party leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, struck a discordant note amid Akhilesh Yadav’s announcement, saying, “Whatever Akhilesh says now, the truth is SP will contest the 2027 assembly elections independently. We cannot carry the Congress baggage anymore. Do they even have leaders on the ground? Does the Congress have the potential to transfer its votes? The reality is, we won 37 seats in the Lok Sabha because of our own strength — not because of any Congress wave.” The remark reflects the simmering unease within sections of the SP over the continued partnership with Congress, indicating that despite public assertions of unity, internal consensus is far from settled.

What’s at stake in 2027?

For SP, this alliance is a ticket to possibly dethroning the BJP in a state it has ruled since 2017. For Congress, it is an opportunity to rebuild its cadre and narrative in a state where its relevance has sharply declined over the past two decades.

But political alliances in Uttar Pradesh have historically been fragile. Personal egos, seat-sharing disputes, and ideological contradictions have often derailed opposition unity. Akhilesh’s statement signals intent, but the road to 2027 is long and filled with unpredictable turns.

The electorate, too, is wiser and more volatile than ever. As the political chessboard begins to form again, all eyes will be on how the INDIA alliance navigates regional challenges and whether it can truly offer a cohesive alternative to Yogi Adityanath’s BJP in the heartland of Hindi politics.