It’s Day 6 of COP28. After a series of lofty pledges and promises, the time has come for what is at the core of this year’s climate summit. COP28 has begun discussions on the first-ever global stocktake, a comprehensive assessment of progress since the Paris Agreement.
“The global stocktake is an ambitious exercise. It’s an accountability exercise. It’s an acceleration exercise,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell. “It’s an exercise that is intended to make sure every party is holding up their end of the bargain, knows where they need to go next and how rapidly they need to move to fulfil the goals of the Paris Agreement.”
But already, momentum from leaders and countries has slowed currently in just cataloguing positions on key areas, including phasing out of fossil fuels and the global goal on adaptation.
What is the global stocktake?
It is a five-yearly report card, and a critical opportunity to take stock of our progress on climate change. The global stocktake looks at everything related to where the world stands on climate action and support, identifying the gaps, and working together to chart a better course forward to accelerate climate action.
It is a comprehensive and inclusive process that takes two years to complete, and involves all parties to the Paris Agreement, as well as non-party stakeholders. In the first stage, relevant information is gathered. Then, in phase two, the data is evaluated. The final phase – a response to this assessment – will now take place at COP28.
Why is global stocktake important?
We are already seeing the devastating impacts of climate change, from raging wildfires to catastrophic floods to more frequent and intense heat waves, as well as food and water scarcity, sea level rise, and biodiversity loss.
To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, global emissions need to be nearly halved by 2030. We also need to transform how we adapt to climate change, so that communities and ecosystems can cope with the impacts that are already happening and which are expected to worsen.
In March 2023, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its latest Synthesis Report, which summarises all the scientific reports it has published during its sixth assessment cycle. It indicated that the global community is not on track to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Yet, the science is clear: a course correction is needed now.
So, what happens next?
A COP28 in Dubai, negotiators from nearly 200 countries are facing the daunting task of crafting a coherent plan to avert the most severe consequences of climate change. The next few years will be pivotal in determining whether we can make the necessary changes to keep within the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit.
But it's not that easy. Developing nations are advocating for increased financial assistance to support their efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Meanwhile, the EU, the US, and vulnerable countries emphasise the need for comprehensive mitigation plans that encompass all sectors and greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide.
The end goal, however, is to come up with a comprehensive roadmap outlining strategies to accelerate emissions reductions, enhance climate resilience, and secure adequate financing for these initiatives. It will also serve as a guiding document for countries as they formulate their next climate action plans, due in 2025 for COP30 in Brazil.
Beyond its practical implications, the COP28 agreement will also carry significant symbolic weight, sending a powerful message to markets, local governments, and other stakeholders. A unified voice from nearly 200 nations advocating for a coal phaseout, for instance, would prompt investors to move away from fossil fuels.
The deadline for this roadmap is December 12, with the possibility of an extension. It’s what makes the global stocktake the heart of COP28 and vital for any climate action efforts.
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