As climate challenge intensifies, experts say adaptation plus mitigation is the key to stay afloat

The World Cities Report 2022 released on June 29 says urban areas account for 70 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, which means cities must act as leaders of climate action to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal set by the Paris Agreement.

Metropolises in developing countries seeing rapidly rising urbanisation are more vulnerable to climate change and least able to respond to its effects, the report says. Cities, especially those in warm or low-lying coastal areas, face existential threats due to the risks and impacts of climate change and extreme events such as increased heatwaves of greater intensity in northern India and widespread flooding elsewhere.

Another report in Nature Communications says 1.81 billion people (23 percent of the world’s population) are directly exposed to 1-in-100-year floods, posing significant risks to lives and livelihoods, especially of vulnerable populations. The risk will worsen as global warming increases the likelihood of extreme flooding, it says.

Of these, 1.24 billion are located in South and East Asia, where China (395 million) and India (390 million) account for over a third of the global exposure, the report says. Among the top 10 countries where extreme poverty (at $1.90 income threshold) and flood exposure coincide, seven are in Sub-Saharan Africa.

At over 65 million, India has the highest number of people exposed to flood risk and living in extreme poverty, though this represents only 16.8 percent of its total exposed population, the report, authored by Jun Rentschler, a senior economist at the World Bank, and others, says.

After an early heatwave that scorched most parts of India, an erratic pre-monsoon and monsoon and intense rainfall led to a series of floods and landslides in the northeastern states of Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur and Arunachal, the Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Kashmir, and central and western states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

However, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and some northeastern states face a rainfall deficit.

Elsewhere in the world, record-breaking rain has caused floods in South Korea, parts of the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Pakistan, the US, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Africa, Uganda, China and Australia. On the other hand, heatwaves struck Europe, North Africa, West Asia, Pakistan and parts of the US and China.

Rescue efforts during the floods in Assam in May 2022. A new report says 1.81 billion people worldwide are directly exposed to 1-in-100-year floods, posing significant risks to lives and livelihoods. (Photo: AFP)

Experts sound warning bells

Experts say the recent reports only reinforce the concerns and earlier findings about climate change and extreme weather events. According to climate scientist Krishna AchutaRao, for years scientists have been predicting more intense rain, longer heatwaves, rain deficits and droughts. The climate and weather are getting more and more variable, he says, adding there is every reason to be concerned.

“These reports are in line with what scientists have been saying all along. It will get worse and that’s what has been predicted,” Rao, professor at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, told Moneycontrol.

Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, says the world is already seeing a 1.10-degrees Celsius rise in mean global temperatures and their impacts and it will hit 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2040 and 2 degrees Celsius by 2060. “This is not the far future but now, and ongoing.”

India is already in a hot spot with a threefold rise in extreme rains, 50 percent increase in cyclones from the Arabian Sea, and rising heatwaves in recent decades, Koll explains.

“What concerns me most is that the global commitment towards reducing emissions is not sufficient to keep global warming from shooting up,” warns Koll, lead author of the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

Minister of state for science and technology and earth sciences Jitendra Singh recently told the Lok Sabha that the warming of the Indian Ocean and frequent El Nino events may cause long heatwaves across India. Referring to a recent climate assessment report, Singh said temperatures have surged during the monsoons.

Last year’s IPCC report also warns of more frequent and intense heatwaves, extreme rain, erratic monsoon, more cyclonic activity and droughts in India.

Climate adaptation is key

According to sustainability strategist Prarthana Borah, while there is cause for concern, it is also time to change the narrative. The focus, she says, should be on improving our understanding on what is working and what is not so that we can move from an alarmist storyline to a “what-we-must-do” story.

While there is a lot of emphasis on mitigation and planning, there is not enough dialogue on adaptation, she says. Extreme events are here, and there is a need to work on living with these as mitigation is a long process, experts say.

The vulnerable, poor and nature-dependent communities have been impacted more by climate and natural disasters, especially in countries such as India, Borah explains, adding that they cannot wait till we devise long-term ways to manage.

“We need immediate inputs on how we can adapt and reduce damage as much as we do for long-term mitigation,” says Borah, director of CDP India, a not-for-profit advisory that studies and recommends organisations on how to lessen their environmental impact.

Koll says the pace of warming has accelerated and there is a need for urgent action. “Climate action and adaptation at local levels should go parallel with mitigation at global and national levels. I am concerned that there is less focus on local adaptation,” he says.

Panchayats and communities, Koll says, can come forward to monitor and work towards adaptation measures. “I have been working with citizen science networks, panchayats, schools and colleges, and have seen wonderful results in terms of climate action at local levels.”

Boosting forecast systems

Many experts lay stress on enhancing weather prediction systems to be able to more accurately forecast extreme weather and changing patterns.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the India Meteorological Department’s director general, recently told news agency Press Trust of India that climate change had hampered the ability of forecasting agencies to accurately predict severe events.

Stating that heavy rainfall events had increased and that light rainfall events had come down due to climate change, he said IMD was installing more radars and upgrading its computing systems to meet the challenge.

Koll says our disaster management is mostly dependent on weather forecasting. The forecasts from IMD, he says, have improved over time, and can track and predict widespread heavy rain and the landfall of cyclones with accuracy.

Together with the disaster management on ground, accurate forecasts have saved lives during the last several years.

“However, these are quick measures. Livelihoods are lost as these extremes intensify. We need long-term policies that can disaster-proof our houses, infrastructure, farms and property as the challenge intensifies,” Koll says.

Raghu Murtugudde, a professor at the department of atmospheric and oceanic science, University of Maryland, says the challenge is to make accurate short (1-3 days), medium (3-10 days) and extended (2-4 weeks) range predictions so that efforts for prevention, management, mitigation and recovery can be made effective.

How the duration, frequency and intensity of extremes are affected each year depends on the combination of the global warming trend and natural variabilities such as El Niño and La Niña, he explains. For example, La Niña made the heatwaves extend down to peninsular India during March and April.

“India has invested over Rs 500 crore to improve predictions and that has yielded benefits in terms of improved early-warning systems and lives saved. We still have some work left but it’s a good start.”

Rao, however, feels the Met department predictions alone, even if accurate, won’t help if there is no action plan on ground.

“We know what to expect but don't know when to expect. The stakeholders have to look for solutions. Some problems may not be solvable but those that can be solved should be solved,” Rao says.

Mitigation and planning

The Nature report points to the need for investment in flood mitigation, including flood defences, and to identify hotspots where flood risk and poverty coincide.

Concurring with the suggestion, Borah says cities, especially in the hills, are more vulnerable. Many of these have grown without planning and face the danger of floods, more frequent earthquakes and landslides, she says.

“The immediate strategy for cities in the hills is to transition back to an approach that puts conservation at the centre of development,” she says. This would entail protection of multiple ecosystems—snow, alpine and sub-alpine areas, forests, and water resources, she says.

This would also mean that national policies need to integrate a mountain perspective so that decisions taken for the rest of the country do not have an adverse impact on mountain cities and their people.

According to the UN report, urban climate adaptation planning is “the purposeful development by local governments of activities and strategies designed to reduce the effects of climate change on natural, built, and social systems”. There are multiple options for climate adaptation in cities, such as water management, land-use planning and green infrastructure.

Rao says it is very hard to find choices in terms of what can be done. Adaptation is the key here and we need to take measures to alleviate the impact of such extreme weather, he says.

“We need comprehensive climate plans. Some cities like Mumbai have some kind of climate action plan. But there is a poor connection vis-à-vis future climate predictions and projections. We have to build for a better tomorrow,” Rao says.

Murtugudde says separate efforts need to occur at the local, regional and national levels to mitigate future impacts.

With India’s revised NDC (nationally determined contributions) commitments to the Paris Agreement, and the investments in renewables, electric vehicles, and so on, we need to keep pushing forward for our own sake and as a part of our commitment to global efforts, he says.

India targets to reduce emission intensity of its GDP by 45 percent by 2030, from 2005 levels, and achieve about 50 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by that year.

Borah says 75 percent of companies who made environment impact disclosures to CDP India reported acute climate risk to business. But 87 percent also reported climate opportunities within products and services, resource efficiency, energy sources markets and resilience.

“It is important to look at the story of opportunity if we want to address the impact of disasters and climate change. This will fuel positive change and accelerate a community movement that helps transitions from a resource-heavy and exploitative behaviour to planet-friendly lifestyles,” she says.