Vegetable prices have risen steeply over the past month, with the cost of staples such as ginger tripling from a year earlier. While tomatoes have been in the spotlight, with prices at unprecedented levels since July, vegetables, including garlic, chillies, coriander, capsicum and French beans are not far behind.
While the rise in prices of vegetables during the monsoon is not new, Moneycontrol finds out why it has been unusually persistent this year.
Heat waves, erratic rainfall
Climate change over the years, an erratic, uneven monsoon that was initially delayed and then caused excess rainfall in parts of India and the damage caused by cyclone Biparjoy have hit the country’s vegetable production hard.
There has been a notable change in climate signatures in India, in line with those in various other parts of the world, said DS Pai, Head of the Environment Monitoring and Research Centre at the India Meteorological Department.
According to the IMD, 2022 was the fifth-warmest year since 1901. Temperatures were 3-8 degrees Celsius above normal for more than six days during March and April, breaking records in several parts of the country.
“This year also, increased temperatures were observed during the first quarter and heat wave conditions were experienced in many parts during March and April. However, they fell in May as skies mostly remained cloudy over north and northwest India due to western disturbance activity. This continued in June, associated with cyclone Biparjoy causing rainfall over several states in northwest India,” Pai said.
Additionally, the southwest monsoon arrived seven days late on June 8. The whole of eastern and southern India (except Tamil Nadu), besides Maharashtra, hardly got any rain. However, almost 15 percent above-normal rainfall was recorded in the past month, with the earlier cumulative deficit turning into an overall 6 percent surplus for June 1-July 30.
“Though the rainfall activity is normal cumulatively, it is marked by heavier rains followed by dry spells in between. The variability of rainfall has also increased,” Pai added.
These weather events have compounded the woes of consumers, who have been paying higher prices for vegetables.
Also Read: IMD predicts rainfall for August to fall below normal
Impact on vegetable production
Untimely rains, heatwaves and rising humidity due to unseasonal rainfall have been damaging crops, said Sanjay Gupta, managing director of National Commodities Management Services Ltd (NCML).
He said the output of chillies plunged last year as unseasonal rains hit standing crops last winter. Chilli is majorly sown from October to November in the southern and central parts, with its produce sufficient for the entire country till the season comes again. It is also grown in small quantities in other regions throughout the year.
There was intensive damage to coriander and ginger crops in Gujarat and Rajasthan caused by cyclone Biparjoy in June. The economic loss in agriculture and horticulture crops in the affected areas was estimated at Rs 1,212.50 crore, parliament was informed.
Capsicum, grown in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, sustained damage due to factors, including extreme rainfall.
While production in Gujarat was damaged by extreme rainfall in June, it was affected in Maharashtra by the lack of it, said Varun Khurana, founder of Otipy, an online horticulture retail store.
“Punjab and Haryana horticulture crops have also seen devastation due to waterlogging that happened because of excess rainfall in July. Supply chain disruptions caused due to landslides in Himachal Pradesh as well as Uttarakhand have added to its transportation,” he said.
Also read: Farm Uneasy | Battered by freak weather, Punjab and Haryana farmers losing hope
Pest attacks
Another fallout of climate change has been the rise in pest attacks on crops.
“Rising humid weather has given way to newer viruses impacting crop growth in a significant way. Last year, vegetable prices were on the low side throughout the year and farmers got disinterested in using expensive pesticides to protect their produce,” said Gupta of NCML.
While the area for vegetable cultivation rose marginally in FY22 from a year earlier, productivity fell to 18.1 million tonnes per hectare from 18.46 million tonnes, according to the annual report of the agriculture ministry.
The production of tomatoes, which generally follows a 90-day crop cycle, was affected when heavy rains lashed Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Haryana ahead of time, making sowing impossible.
Constant demand and diminishing supply sent tomato prices skyrocketing to Rs 150-200 per kg in different parts of the country.
Potato, after a bumper crop last year, is the only vegetable that has stuck to last year’s prices, providing some relief to consumers.
When will prices stabilise?
Most vegetables follow a 60-75 day crop cycle from planting to fruiting. Fresh stocks of vegetables are expected to trickle in from September and prices should stabilise by October, experts said.
Tomato prices are expected to come down by September when stocks from Karnataka and Maharashtra make their way to the markets, said Pushan Sharma, director of research at CRISIL. Onion prices may rise in September and will start falling once kharif and late kharif arrivals come in late October, he added.
Coriander is a 45-day crop and may arrive sooner than other vegetables. On the other hand, ginger is a 90-day crop and its stocks are expected later, said Gupta. Production of vegetables goes up in winter and we expect prices of all vegetables to fall back to normal by the end of November, he added.
“As prices remain high, there are fears of farmers growing vegetables in wider areas, which may even lead to a supply glut early next year,” he said.
Also read: Spice prices begin to simmer as erratic rainfall hits production
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
