The stage is set for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra scheduled to announce the outcome at 10 am on October 1. The address will be streamed live on the RBI’s YouTube, X account, and official website, followed by a detailed press conference at noon.
When the MPC met
The October meeting began on September 29 and ran through October 1, bringing together the six-member MPC to deliberate on interest rates, inflation, and growth. This was the committee’s fourth meeting of FY26, with two more scheduled:
December 3–5, 2025
February 4–6, 2026
ALSO READ: RBI MPC Meeting Live Updates
Where rates stand
Feb 2025: Repo cut by 25 bps
Apr 2025: Another 25 bps cut (to 6 percent)
Jun 2025: A jumbo 50 bps cut (to 5.5 percent)
Aug 2025: Repo rate held at 5.5 percent with a neutral stance
The current repo rate, the rate at which RBI lends to banks, directly shapes loan EMIs and deposit rates, making MPC decisions closely watched by households and corporates alike.
Cautious trade ahead of RBI policy
Indian equities closed marginally lower on September 30, with traders largely staying on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) October monetary policy outcome.
At close, the Sensex slipped 100 points (0.13 percent) to 80,263, while the Nifty50 eased 25 points (0.07 percent) to 24,610.
A Moneycontrol poll showed most economists expect the RBI to hold rates on October 1, though SBI Research has argued for a calibrated 25-basis-point (bps) cut.
What a cut would mean
If the RBI does cut rates on October 1, analysts see three key benefits:
- Push to growth: Cheaper loans for households and corporates, boosting consumption and investment.
- Credit growth: Banks already report 10 percent YoY systemic credit growth, expected to accelerate.
- Bond rally: Lower yields and stronger demand for government securities.
“GST reforms will cushion tariff uncertainties, while easier monetary conditions could lift supply-chain confidence,” Barclays noted.
Why this meeting matters
India’s economy is in a complex moment:
GDP growth hit a five-quarter high of 7.8 percent in Q1 FY26, up from 6.5 percent last year.
The government’s new two-slab GST reform (5 percent and 18 percent) rolled out in late September is expected to spur consumption further.
Globally, the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps in its first easing move of 2025, while US-India trade talks continue amid Trump’s steep 50 percent tariffs on Indian goods.
All of this adds pressure on the MPC to balance inflation management with growth momentum and external risks.
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