Demographic Edge: India’s working age population to exceed China’s by 2030

Some analysts believe that India’s working-age population will exceed China’s number a little later, closer to 2030.

Given this trend and looking at various parameters, including GDP per capita income and debt/GDP ratio, analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote, “India's future looks to a significant extent like China's past.”

While the size of India’s workforce is a “major competitive advantage", according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s economists, they wrote that the ability to harness this advantage will depend on upskilling the workforce and in boosting female employment.

“Labor dynamics will be pivotal in achieving India’s domestic growth targets and its global ambitions,” wrote S&P Global’s Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, and Ashima Tyagi, Economics Associate Director.

“A key impediment to overcome will be public perception that upskilling is a last resort for those who have opted out of the formal academic system… Consolidating and streamlining upskilling schemes may also improve their effectiveness. MSDE (Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship) has a challenging task in coordinating skill-development programmes spread across multiple ministries and associated departments within the central and state governments,” they added.

They also noted that increasing female labour participation will partly depend on improving the perception of women’s role in society. They wrote, “This will reduce barriers for women entering the workforce and diminish gender discrimination more broadly.”