Sugar prices are expected to drop by "at least 5 percent" due to the government's latest notification that bars the use of sugarcane for the production of ethanol, said Vivek Saraogi, the Chairman and Managing Director of Balrampur Chini Mills, while speaking to CNBC TV-18 on December 8.
The government order, issued on December 7, is set to increase the country's production of sugar while reducing the output of ethanol. If the sugar production increases by around 15 to 17 lakh tonnes, "it will have a bearing impact on the target price", Saraogi pointed out.
A potential loss that sugar makers may face would depend on the quantum of reduction in sugar prices, he suggested.
Also Read: Why ethanol U-turn is a big disappointment for sugar mills and investors
Balrampur Chini Mills, one of the country's leading sugar manufacturers, reported a net profit of Rs 73.5 crore in the first quarter of FY24. The company's shares were valued at Rs 393.20 at the closing bell on December 8, down 3.72 percent from the previous day's close.
According to Saraogi, the company was going to use 1.2 crore quintals of its sugarcanes, around 10 percent of the overall stock, for ethanol production. "This sugarcane stock, however, is not going to be wasted. It will be used to make a different product, that is the grain of sugar," he said.
Notably, out of the total ethanol production, around 28 percent is from sugarcane juice, which also fetches the maximum price for the sugar mills, at Rs 65.61 per litre.
Over 50 percent of the ethanol comes from the sugar by-product B-heavy molasses, which the government has not banned. Its current rate is Rs 60.73 per litre. Little over one percent is produced from C-heavy molasses, which carries the lowest price of Rs 49.41 per litre.
The government’s move was perhaps to check a drop in sugar output following reports of a possible shortfall.
Sugar industry experts reckon that a lower sugar production this year would reduce the ethanol output, and this decision could further aggravate the situation and prevent the Centre from attaining the ethanol fuel blending target.
In 2022-23, the country achieved 12 percent fuel-blending, and in the current year, the government is looking at raising it to 15 percent. The Centre has targeted 20 percent ethanol blending in petrol by 2030.
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