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Here are a few investment ideas from Prakash Diwan

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prakash Diwan, Investment Evangelist at prakashdiwan.in shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.

July 12, 2016 / 12:30 IST
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Prakash Diwan, Investment Evangelist at prakashdiwan.in shared his readings and outlook on specific stocks and sectors.Below is the verbatim transcript of Prakash Diwan’s interview to Sonia Shenoy & Anuj Singhal.Anuj: Public sector undertaking (PSU) banks are on steroids almost. Punjab National Bank (PNB) was up 8 percent yesterday. What is next?
A: I hope it gets into a bit of a reality check. The kind of exuberance is predicated on the basis of a very stark improvement in quarterly numbers going forward because we have had a very tepid FY16 and there is a belief that the non-performing asset (NPA) woes would have settled but it is not something where it gets over with the end of the financial year. It is not something where you can close easily. My sense is that ageing of the NPAs is still going to reflect the numbers when we see that. Fortunately all the numbers are predominantly in the month of August and not in the month of July that you will see the PSU results coming out. So the party continues till then.

I believe some of the smartest smaller banks would be the right pocket to focus on. We have seen stellar run in Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) and Allahabad Bank. We will probably see a similar run in Union Bank of India and Andhra Bank. So those are yet to participate in the rally from trading perspective. However, from long-term investment perspective I would want to see the numbers for the quarter June end and only then I would start sticking my neck out because I have seen disappointments in some of the larger ones like Bank of Baroda (BoB) etc because the marginal cost of lending rate (MCLR) getting activated this quarter. I am clear that there will be an impact when earnings -- we could have an 8-10 percent cut in growth for most of the larger banks and that is a significant mismatch from expectations. So just wait for the numbers then join the party otherwise you could be too late and could be disappointed after this.Sonia: Any thoughts on the midcap names, so many of them hitting new highs. What tops your list now?

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A: I believe it is a continuation of the same theme. A month back we identified Tube Investments of India and we have seen it rally 25 percent in last four weeks. These are strong pedigreed stories that one would want to chase but there is a bit of froth that has begin to build-up and one need to be careful not to participate too late.

It is going to be result season which means more volatility and that is an opportunity for investors who buy in at lower levels but some of the themes that we are strong on are fertilisers; Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers (RCF) is one of our top picks.