Buy Coal India; target of Rs 475: Emkay Global Financial

Emkay Global Financial's research report on Coal India

COAL reported a strong quarterly performance, with Q4FY25 EBITDA at Rs132.9bn (+2.5% vs Emkay; +17.3% vs consensus). The performance in Q4 profitability is on the back of better-than-expected e-auction premiums, lower employee cost, and lower reversal from stripping activity. While we estimate Coal India’s production reaching 820mt in FY26 from 781mt in FY25, we expect e-auction premiums to normalize to around 50%, directionally taking cue from the declining global benchmark thermal coal prices.

Outlook

Valuations remain undemanding, with 1-year forward P/E of 7x vs 10-year average of 9.7x. We therefore retain BUY with unchanged Mar-26E target price of Rs475.

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