Buy Britannia Industries; target of Rs 6761 Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Britannia Industries

We increase FY27/FY28 EPS estimates by 4.3% factoring in 1) expected volume gains from higher grammage (65% of sales) and price cuts 2) steady margins outlook with focus on volume-led growth 3) benefits of sustained innovations and cost control and 4) lower PLI and GST refunds under various Govt capex schemes. BRIT delivered ~3.7% revenue growth as GST led transition impacted sales by 2-2.5% while GM was up by 16bps/138bps YoY/QoQ on relatively stable commodity prices. We remain positive on BRIT given 1) Sustained leadership in Biscuits and Bakery 2) likely share gains from local and regional players given sharp reduction in GST rates (18% to 5% on 85% of portfolio) 3) rising scalability & improved profitability in adjacencies and 4) strong innovation pipeline with focus on region/ channel specific products & premiumization. We expect double digit volume growth in 2H26 and FY27 led by benefits of GST cut, favorable macro environment, new launches, and benign inputs.

Outlook

We estimate 16.5% EPS CAGR over FY26-28 and value the stock at 50x Sep’27EPS and assign a target price of Rs 6761 (Rs6484 earlier). Retain BUY.

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