RBI to announce monetary policy amid expectations of 25-basis point reduction in repo rate

The meeting is taking place against the backdrop of falling inflation, rising GDP growth, the rupee crossing 90 against the dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The RBI reduced the key short-term lending rate (repo) by 100 basis points in three tranches, beginning in February, amid declining consumer price index (CPI) based inflation.

Several experts said that while growth remains robust, a significant decline in retail inflation has created additional room for a reduction in the key short-term lending rate.

Even the RBI Governor last month had said that there is a scope to further reduce policy interest rates.

In this backdrop, some experts believe that the RBI may continue with the pause on interest rates as economic growth has picked up, sustained by fiscal consolidation, targeted public investment, and various reforms, such as the GST rate cut.

The CPI-based headline inflation is ruling below the 2 per cent lower band mandated by the government. Besides, the Indian economy has clocked better-than-expected GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter.

The government has mandated the RBI to ensure that retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

RBI is also expected to revise its GDP growth forecast upward, given better-than-expected first-half numbers. Earlier in October, the Reserve Bank of India had upped the GDP forecast to 6.8 per cent from the earlier projection of 6.5 per cent for the current financial year.