The Nifty 50 is expected to trade weak amid volatility, considering the weakening technical and momentum indicators. In case of a further fall, the index may take support at 25,800 (50-day EMA) and around 25,700 (December low). However, a decisive break below these levels can strengthen the bears, while sustaining above them can raise the possibility of an up move toward 26,200–26,300. Meanwhile, if the Bank Nifty sustains below 59,000, the 58,700 level (near the December low) cannot be ruled out amid volatility, followed by 58,500 (50 DEMA). On the higher side, 59,100–59,200 are the levels to watch, experts said.
On December 29, the Nifty 50 dropped 100 points (0.38 percent) to 25,942, while the Bank Nifty declined 79 points to 58,932. Market breadth continued to favour the bears. About 2,062 shares saw selling pressure against 847 advancing shares on the NSE.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities
Nifty has closed below the 26,000 level once again. In this series, it has been observed that the trend/momentum turns sideways to negative below 26,000 levels, and conversely, positive above 26,000 levels. Now, below 26,000, the next support range is 25,800–25,700 levels, whereas above 26,000, the upside range is 26,200–26,300 levels.
Broadly, the range for this entire series has been 26,300–25,700, which is 600 points, i.e., slightly more than 2 percent, whereas the narrow range has been 200–300 points, i.e., almost 1 percent.
Due to this range-bound series, India VIX fell below 10 percent to one of its lowest levels in history, and Nifty IVs fell as low as 6. However, in the last trading session, volatility bounced back and is now above 9. Additionally, Nifty is below 26,000 levels, which together indicate that the monthly series is likely to trade with a negative bias.
Options data indicates that the 26,000 level has the highest Call base, which will act as resistance, whereas there is no significant Put base, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Hence, the PCR (Put Call Ratio) is at 0.57, which is low but not yet oversold.
Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200
Key Support: 25,800, 25,700
Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures at CMP and on a rise near 26,000, with a stop-loss of 26,150, targeting 25,700.
Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
In the most recent trading session, Nifty witnessed a sharp decline of nearly 180 points from the day’s high and eventually closed below the psychological 26,000 level. Technically, the index slipped below the 20 DEMA, which acts as an important short-term trend indicator, signaling near-term weakness. However, the 50 DEMA is placed around the 25,800 zone, aligning with a strong previous demand area as well as the Ichimoku cloud, making this region a crucial support.
Considering these factors, a phase of consolidation is likely in the coming sessions. The index is expected to trade in a sideways range between 25,700 and 26,300. A potential rebound is anticipated from the 25,700–25,800 support zone in the coming days.
Key Resistance: 26,100, 26,200
Key support: 25,800, 25,700
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the zone of 25,950–25,900, with a stop-loss of 25,750, targeting 26,250.
Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities
Nifty Spot headed into the final week of 2025 on a cautious yet stable note, reflecting consolidation after recent swings. The index continues to defend the 25,900–25,850 support zone, which remains a key pivot for the near-term trend. As long as this base holds, the broader structure stays constructive.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 26,100, followed by a stronger supply zone near 26,300, where sellers have consistently emerged. From a derivatives perspective, heavy Call open interest at 26,100 and 26,200 highlights overhead resistance into monthly expiry, while Put writing at 25,900 and 25,800 suggests buying interest on declines.
Overall, Nifty is likely to remain range-bound into expiry, with a mild positive bias unless key supports are breached.
Key Resistance: 26,100, 26,200
Key Support: 25,900, 25,800
Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,900, with a stop-loss below 25,800, targeting 26,100.
Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning
Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
During the latest trading session, Bank Nifty ended below its 20 DEMA, indicating short-term weakness, as this average acts as a key trend gauge. Despite this, the broader structure remains supported near the 58,500 region, where the 50 DEMA coincides with a strong earlier demand zone, a prior breakout area, and the Ichimoku cloud. This confluence makes the zone an important support base.
On the derivatives front, the Put–Call Ratio has slipped to 0.67, suggesting the index is in oversold territory. Given this setup, Bank Nifty may enter a consolidation phase over the next few sessions. The index is likely to oscillate within the 58,500–59,500 range, with a probable bounce emerging from the 58,700–58,800 support area in the coming days.
Key Resistance: 59,200, 59,500
Key Support: 58,700, 58,500
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the zone of 58,700–58,800, with a stop-loss of 58,500, targeting 59,300.
Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Technical Equity Research at SMC Global Securities
Bank Nifty witnessed some profit booking after testing its recent swing highs, leading the index to retrace modestly and pause after a strong rally. This pullback appears more like a healthy breather than a trend reversal. The index continues to find dependable support in the 58,900–58,800 zone, which also aligns with the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing, underlining its technical significance. As long as this support holds, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
On the upside, 59,200 stands as the immediate resistance, while the 59,500–59,600 zone near the recent peak could cap further advances. Meanwhile, secondary indicators such as the RSI are showing mild negative divergence, indicating some loss of momentum. Overall, Bank Nifty is likely to consolidate, with traders advised to stay selective near higher levels.
Key Resistance: 59,200, 59,400
Key Support: 58,800, 58,700
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 58,900, with a stop-loss below 58,700, targeting 59,200.
Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities
Bank Nifty has been an underperformer and has been one of the reasons for Nifty’s slower momentum in the December series. Since Bank Nifty carries the highest weight in the Nifty and has been trading with a sideways to negative bias, it has been exerting pressure on the Nifty in the near term.
Throughout this series, the 59,000 level acted as a critical support, as holding above it kept the overall bias sideways to positive. However, a close below 59,000 indicates that the bears have the upper hand, and until the index closes back above 59,000, the short-term trend will remain sideways to negative.
Options data indicates that the 59,000 strike has the highest Call base, which will act as resistance, whereas 58,500 has the highest Put base and will act as support. Therefore, the range for the monthly expiry is 58,500–59,000.
A close above 59,500 will indicate renewed buying interest, which could then propel the index toward the 60,000 level as well.
Key Resistance: 59,000, 59,500
Key Support: 58,500
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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