The market remained volatile and range-bound for the third straight week ended October 14, with the Nifty50 taking support at 16,750-16,800 levels and facing resistance at 17,350-17,400 levels. Hence, a decisive move on either side of the range can determine the market direction and, till then, it is expected to trade in the similar range for the next few weeks, according to experts.
The Nifty50 lost around half of previous week's losses and closed with a 0.7 percent decline at 17,186 during the week. The Friday's rally helped the market reduce some of weekly loss, but there was profit-booking at higher levels, raising doubts over sustainability of this uptrend.
Hence, the 50-share NSE benchmark has formed bearish candle on the daily charts on Friday, while on the weekly charts, there was high wave kind of pattern formation, indicating high volatility in the market.
"The candles for the last three weeks are having tall wicks on both ends which indicates indecision among the traders due to volatility," Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives at Samco Securities, said.
She expects follow-up buying as the market has sustained above 17,100 on Friday, which could take it towards 17,500 levels soon. On the lower side, 16,800 will act as an important support in the coming trading sessions.
Let's take a look at the top 10 trading ideas by experts for the next three-four weeks. Returns are based on the September 16 closing prices:
Expert: Vinay Rajani, CMT, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities
Healthcare Global Enterprises: Buy | LTP: Rs 298 | Stop-Loss: Rs 274 | Target: Rs 352 | Return: 18 percent
The stock price has broken out from the horizontal channel on the weekly charts. Price breakout is accompanied by jump in volumes. It is placed above all important moving averages, which indicates bullish trend on all time frames.
Healthcare sector has started outperforming and same is expected to continue.
Bullish Triple Bottom formation is registered at Rs 255 odd levels. The stock price has broken out from the “Flag” pattern on the daily chart. Indicators and oscillators have been showing strength on the weekly charts.
Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,454 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,318 | Target: Rs 1,670 | Return: 15 percent
On week ended September 30, the stock broke out from the downward sloping trend line on the weekly chart and also registered new all-time high of Rs 1,574 with significant jump in volumes. After running correction, it has turned north, which can be considered as retracement of the primary bullish trend.
Volumes have gone up along with the price rise, while during price falls volume remained less. Indicators and oscillators like MACD (moving average convergence and divergence) and RSI (relative strength index) have turned bullish on the weekly charts.
The stock is placed above all important moving averages, indicating bullish trend on all time frames.
Pfizer: Buy | LTP: Rs 4,370 | Stop-Loss: Rs 4,190 | Target: Rs 4,725 | Return: 8 percent
The stock price has surpassed crucial resistance of its 200 days EMA (exponential moving average) and has been sustaining above it. The stock has also broken out from the consolidation, which held for previous 7 months.
Indicators and oscillators have turned bullish on the daily and weekly charts. Pharma sector has started outperforming and the same is expected to continue.
Expert: Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities
Federal Bank: Buy | LTP: Rs 130 | Stop-Loss: Rs 115 | Target: Rs 145-160 | Return: 11-23 percent
The stock is in CUP with Handle consolidation since October 2017. It was facing resistance at Rs 128 and finding support at Rs 80. If we consider the volume pattern it is rising whenever the stock moves to the upper boundary of the trading range, which is a sign of an upside break out, which is more likely in the near term.
It is a partly buy at current levels and adding more at Rs 120 is advisable. Place a stop-loss at Rs 115 to hold a long position. On the upside, it will rebound to Rs 145 or Rs 160 in the medium term.
Happiest Minds Technologies: Buy | LTP: Rs 991 | Stop-Loss: Rs 940 | Target: Rs 1,150 | Return: 16 percent
The stock is turning positive on the daily chart. In the previous quarter, the stock corrected to 50 percent of the entire rally, which was at Rs 960.
If the Nifty IT index outperforms from here then it is a strong candidate for a rebound. The stock is consolidating around last several months closing levels, which would propel the stock to Rs 1,150 in the medium term. Buy more at current levels at Rs 1,000 with stop-loss at Rs 940.
Narayana Hrudayalaya: Buy | LTP: Rs 730 | Stop-Loss: Rs 690 | Target: Rs 770-780 | Return: 6-7 percent
The stock is consolidating at the highest levels of the current rally. On a weekly basis, it has crossed the previous swing high at Rs 740, which is positive for the stock as the broader pattern is of a saucer, which will lift the stock to Rs 770-780 levels in the medium term.
To take a long position between Rs 730 and Rs 710, place a stop-loss at Rs 690.
Expert: Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi
Coforge: Buy | LTP: Rs 3,742 | Stop-Loss: Rs 3,500 | Target: Rs 4,100 | Return: 10 percent
The stock has corrected almost 46 percent from its top of Rs 6,097 which was made on January 4, 2022. On weekly chart it has made double bottom along with 9 months long trend line break (refer chart).
Weekly MACD has made bullish cross along with weekly RSI has formed impulsive structure which is adding more confirmation for upside momentum. Thus we advise traders to buy the stock for an upside target of Rs 4,100 with a stop-loss of Rs 3,500.
Pfizer: Buy | LTP: Rs 4,370 | Stop-Loss: Rs 4,100 | Target: Rs 4,800 | Return: 10 percent
Since September 2021, the counter observed a free fall from Rs 6,080 to Rs 4,070 and it has stabilized near its historical support of Rs 4,100. From the candlesticks pattern perspective during August 2022 month counter displayed pair of Dojis followed by a bullish Engulfing pattern along with volume steadily increasing which is a hinting upside.
From the indicator perspective, the weekly RSI (relative strength index) has made a complex structure near the oversold zone which further confirms the upside in the counter. One can buy in a small tranche at current levels and buy another tranche at around Rs 4,250 levels (if retested again).
The upside target is expected till Rs 4,800 and with a stop-loss of Rs 4,100.
Rossari Biotech: Buy | LTP: Rs 914.2 | Stop-Loss: Rs 850 | Target: Rs 1,050 | Return: 15 percent
Rossari Biotech has witnessed a very sharp correction of 51 percent between October 2021 and June 2022. Since then the stock is consolidating between Rs 825-880 (see chart) and it has made a solid base near Rs 900 levels.
On August 3, 2022, it gave a classic breakout from said levels along with massive volume picking up which hints at the further upside.
At the current juncture, the said counter has taken support near its top of the previous range breakout (refer the chart). One can hold (if already bought) and add (if considering fresh buy) at the current market price. The upside is seen till Rs 1,050 with credible support seen at Rs 850.
Expert: Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel One
Mphasis: Buy | LTP: Rs 2,105.70 | Stop-Loss: Rs 2,040 | Target: Rs 2,250 | Return: 7 percent
The IT has been the worst performing space in this calendar year. However, with result season kicked in, few marquee stocks within this pack have delivered robust set of numbers, which has brought some life back in respective names.
We expect some catch up to happen from this stock too in the forthcoming week. Pricewise, it's interestingly poised around key support zone. Also, the way the trading range is narrowing down day by day, the breakout is imminent soon.
However, the real strength would trigger only after surpassing the Rs 2,150 mark. Since we are anticipating it to happen, traders are advised to buy for a near term target of Rs 2,250. The strict stop-loss needs to be placed at Rs 2,040.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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