It has been a roller coaster week for India markets. The S&P BSE Sensex had a touch and go moment with 35,000 while for Nifty it was for 10700 levels as well as 200-days moving average (DMA).
The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1.3 percent while the Nifty50 saw a decline of 1.4 percent for the week ended November 22. Indian market remained shut on Friday on account of a public holiday.
The broader market outperformed benchmark indices. The S&P BSE Mid-cap index slipped 0.78 percent while the S&P BSE Small-cap index was down by 0.9 percent in the same period. However, there was plenty of action in individual stocks.
As many as 26 stocks in the S&P BSE Small-cap index rose 10-30 percent in just four trading session this week which include names like DB Realty, CG Power, Supreme Infra, KSK Energy, Electrosteel Steels, Indoco Remedies, Premier Explosives, Kesoram Industries etc. among others.
In the S&P BSE 500 index, as many as five stocks rose 10-20 percent which include names like RattanIndia Infrastructure Ltd, CG Power, Gammon Infra, Kwality, Diamond Power, Veto Switchgear, and 8K Miles Software Services Ltd.
Markets ended the three weeks of winning streak even though the beginning was upbeat, citing favorable indications from recently concluded RBI meet.
However, bias turned negative afterward and gradually pushed the index lower. Weak global cues, fall in crude oil prices, appreciating rupee weighed on IT stocks, as well as downward revision of global growth forecast weighed on sentiment.
In absence of any major event, assembly elections will remain in limelight. Among the remaining states, voting in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram is scheduled on November 28.
“On the macro front, participants will be eyeing core sector data and Q2GDP data on November 30. Meanwhile, volatility is expected to remain high due to scheduled derivatives expiry on November 29,” Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking told Moneycontrol.
“The market is likely to remain under pressure thus traders should continue with “Sell on the rise” approach. Nifty failed to surpass the crucial hurdle at 10,800 and now it may find support around 10,350,” he said.
Technical Outlook:
The coming week is expected to remain volatile amid November month F&O expiry due on Thursday. Looking at the options data, the expiry should happen in the range of 10500-10800 levels.
On the macro front, market participants will also eye September quarter GDP data which is scheduled for Friday.
Icra in a report said that it expects GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth to be 7.2 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, in the second quarter of this financial year, down from the 8.2 percent and 8 percent respectively in the first quarter.
“The major event for the Indian equity market would be the GDP data that is eyed at the end of this month along with expiry. The numbers would certainly give a medium-term directional view for broader indices and decide the breadth for coming months,” Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research told Moneycontrol.
“That said, we have elections in major states and a lot would depend on the outcome of it. It is evident one can be vocal about volatility that is expected to come in and rise. Hence we may witness a directional play keeping above analysis in perspective. We expect the range for the market to be 10,600 to 10,220 and approach should be selling on any pullbacks,” he said.
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