See Dollar Index rising 5%, wary of EMs now: AMP Cap

Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Shane Oliver, Head, Investment Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital Investors said that December seasonally is a strong month. There is a pause right now, he said, adding that events like Italian referendum, ECB and US Fed meets are around the corner.Donald Trump rally was a strong one and markets became overbought, he said.While a US dollar denominated debt can be negative for emerging markets, it is positive for Europe and Japan. They will benefit from a falling dollar, he said. He cautioned that it is dangerous to lump all emerging markets together. China, India, and Indonesia can ride it out, he said, referring to fallout of Donald Trump policies. For the next 6 months, he is off emerging markets, he said.He believes that the Dollar Index will rise by 5-7 percent. If the dollar rises, then it is less work for the US Fed. Fiscal stimulus, if any, will kick in by second half of next year, he said.Transcript to follow...