Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates pegs chance of the US economy slipping into recession before the 2020 Presidential election at 40 percent. "Recessions are always inevitable, the only question is 'when?' I think that in the next two years, let’s say prior to the next election, there’s probably a 40 percent chance of a recession," Dalio told CNBC.
Fears of an economic recession were sparked after the country’s 10-year Treasury note momentarily slipped below the two-year rate early on August 14, amid escalating US-China trade tensions. This rate has in the past been a reliable precursor to a looming economic crisis.
Dalio said though "the economic slowdown would prompt central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to ease monetary policies even further," cutting interest rates this late "may not be effective in stimulating the economy."
He feels countries across the globe would look to weaken their currencies to boost growth as it makes exports cheaper, the report added.
The US is not alone in its fear of an economic recession. Early indicators signal the same for other economies including Germany – which saw GDP for the April-June period shrink by 0.1 percent compared to last year -- and Singapore, saw a reduction in Q2 FY20.
Both countries are global economic hubs. Dalio said the environment over the next three years would thus see "more currency wars – whether there are overt interventions or their monetary policies produce that."
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