Ashok Gautam, senior vice-president and head, global markets-treasury, Axis Bank explains, on CNBC-TV18, that the rupee will be affected by pressure from the dollar which is typical at the end of the year. Gautam forecasts that the rupee will move in the 54.20-55.20 range in the near-term.
Below is an edited transcript of the analysis on CNBC-TV18 Q: What is your outlook on the rupee in the backdrop of the continued US fiscal cliff negotiation and expectations that the volatility in the dollar will remain?A: The currency market will have to brace for some volatility going ahead and as international market also enters into the holiday mood next week, it either tends to remain where it is or post a sharp move. This could have an effect on the Indian rupee.
But at this point of time, the rupee has reacted to the movement in the stock market, and buying related to gold and other commodities particularly, oil. As the calendar year comes to an end, the rupee will be under pressure on the demand for dollars which is very typical during this period. Q: Can you indicate any near-term targets?
A: In the near-term, I still believe that 55.20 is going to be very a critical level for us to watch. To give a range, I still maintain, on a weakening side a level of 55.20 and if any gains are made, the upper end would be at the level of 54.20.
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