Rupee may hit key resistance level of 63/$ soon: HDFC Bank

Ashutosh Raina of HDFC Bank expects the Indian currency to open below 62 against the US dollar today. Global cues will trigger rupee's fall and it may open around 62.20/USD, he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview.

Raina believes that rupee may hit 63 against the dollar in a week or a month’s time.  Also read: Gold to cost Rs 31,000 per 10 gram by December: Report
“We may see a downtick from these levels but we may not see that great a fall as we have seen until now. We may definitely see 63/USD but going to 65/USD, we may find a lot of resistance from 63/USD to 65/USD,” adds Raina. Below is the edited transcript of Raina's interview to CNBC-TV18. Q: We have seen a slew of measures but the rupee is not finding any kind of support. It did moved towards 62/USD. Now how are you viewing it for today? Do you expect some kind of pullback in the rupee or do you think 62/USD is going to be breached today?
A: We are going to breach 62/USD mark in the opening itself going by the global factors. We may open around 62.20/USD in the opening trades today. So, 62/USD doesn’t look to be a sacrosanct figure as of now. Q: What kind of a range can we now begin to work with? I suppose it is not very easy to give a longer term picture right now but at least with this week or of the day, what kind of a range would you be looking at?
A: I think technically if you look at dollar-rupee, it looks likely that 62.50/USD is the next resistance as of now, but looking at all the factors and all the negative sentiment prevailing at the moment, I think 63/USD can be seen in a week’s time or maybe a month’s time. Q: 63/USD in a week or in a month’s time is going to be gloom and doom for the entire economic scenario but given that it is a possibility that Fed next month would start tapering down and then we could see some bit of dollar strength coming in, as it is we have a weak rupee. So, what are you viewing on that in case the Fed does come up and does start the tapering programme, do you see 65/USD a real possibility in the next couple of months?
A: Dollar-rupee has depreciated by more than 12-13 percent in the last two-three months and most of the pricing on the back of the Fed tapering has almost happened. Almost in all the currency players a lot of tapering expectations have been priced in. So, we may see a downtick from these levels but we may not see that much of a fall as we have seen till now. So, we may definitely see 63/USD but going to 65/USD, we may find a lot of resistance from 63/USD to 65/USD.