Airlines around the world have been forced to redraw flightpaths for many routes connecting airports in Europe and on the east coast of the US to those in Asia and even cancel many flights after the airspace over Ukraine was closed and that over Russia restricted. The ongoing conflict has complicated flight plans for many airlines as they also need to avoid overflying many parts of West Asia.
Airlines from the US and Europe that were earlier overflying Ukraine and Russia are now being forced to divert the flights through southern parts of Asia. This has increased flight times and put pressure on operating costs, aviation sector experts said.
Russia has banned airlines from 36 countries from its airspace, retaliating to similar restrictions imposed after President Valdimir Putin ordered his forces into Ukraine.
Flying around Russia will increase travel routes by hundreds of kilometres and flight durations between the US, Europe and East Asian countries by two to three hours, aviation experts and airline executives said.
“A flight between Frankfurt to Beijing will take up to two more hours more of air time and add around 700 nautical miles, above the usual 4,217 nautical miles,” said Lokesh Sharma, a senior aviation consultant.
A remapped round trip between London and Tokyo would also either need to fly a more southerly route over India or a more northerly polar route in the direction of Alaska, adding more than two hours of flight time in each direction, according to an analysis from an international aviation consultancy. That would increase fuel burn by more than 20 percent and translate into nearly an additional $25,000 in fuel costs for the round trip, the analysis said.
The rising cost of fuel—from higher prices and increased consumption—is expected to force many American and European airlines to suspend operations to East Asian countries temporarily. In any case, demand for international travel is still depressed due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The additional fuel expense is not the only burden airlines have to bear. Longer routes mean that airlines have to provide for more mid-flight crew changes on long-haul flights. Most long-haul flights above 14 hours are handled by two shifts of pilots and cabin crew.
Such additional operational costs at a time airlines do not have pricing power are expected to lead to cancellations of many flights.
“An instant impact will be seen on all flights operating between Japan, China, particularly Beijing, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Europe and the east coast of the United States,” said Robert Mann, a US-based aviation consultant.
Flights between Australia, Southeast Asia and Europe will also have to find alternative routes via West Asia and southern Europe instead of Russia, adding about an hour to the flight, according to estimates from International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The impact of the conflict is expected to be limited on Asian airlines unless the airspace closures last a very long time, experts added.
Most Asian airlines like Singapore Airlines, Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Korean Air and Air India have also not been barred from using Russian airspace.
Aviation experts says that most European and US-based airlines will likely adopt the southern route while flying to East Asia and are likely to use airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and other locations that have plenty of capacity to handle more flights
The restrictions faced by European and American airlines may also be a boon to Air India and other Asian carriers. “Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways, Emirates, Etihad, Saudia and Turkish Airlines could pick up market share out of China, where they already operate about 20 to 25 flights per week,” a senior airline industry official said.
Aviation experts said that European and American passengers are likely to opt for connecting flights from airports in Dubai, Delhi, etc, rather than take longer direct flights.
Most Asian carriers offer direct flights to Japan, China and Southeast Asia and also operate direct flights between European countries and the US.
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