Key events next week: Inflation data, major IT companies' Q2 earnings, Fed Meeting Minutes and more

The results for the second quarter of FY24 will be announced in India by TCS (October 11), Infosys, HCL Tech, HDFC AMC, Tata Metaliks (October 12), Den Networks, Hathway, HDFC Life, Aditya Birla Money (October 13), D'Mart, Dalmia Bharat (October 14), and HDFC Bank (October 15).

On the global front in the next week, inflation data releases from the US and China (both October 12) are important. In addition, GDP numbers will be out from UK for the month of August (October 12). Global markets are also waiting for the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the US Fed. Also, in the upcoming week, trade data will come out from the UK and China (October 12).

Pepsico (Oct 10), Wipro Limited, Richardson Electronics (Oct 11), Domino's Pizza, Delhi Airlines (Oct 12), J P Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo & Company, BlackRock, UnitedHealth Group (Oct 13) will release earnings reports in the US.

Here's a preview of important Economic and Market events, along with upcoming macroeconomic data releases in India and across the world for the upcoming week.

October 11 (Wednesday) FOMC Meeting Minutes The minutes of the recent US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting held on September 19–20, which discussed interest rates, the state of the national economy, and potential interest rate hikes in future, will be made public. The Federal Reserve in the last meeting left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5 percent, after ten back to back hikes.

October 12 (Thursday) India CPI September
India's headline retail inflation rate fell to 6.83 percent in August, as vegetable prices cooled somewhat compared to July.  At 6.83 percent, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print for August is 61 basis points lower than July's 15-month high of 7.44 percent. However, it is the second month in a row that inflation has come in higher than the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance limit of 2-6 percent. Food inflation fell to 9.94 percent in August from 11.51 percent in July.

India Manufacturing Output August
Output of the manufacturing sector, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the IIP, registered a growth of 4.6 percent, up from 3.1 percent in June.

India Industrial Production August
India's industrial output grew by 5.7 percent in July.  At 5.7 percent, the latest industrial growth figure as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is at a five-month high. Industrial growth had come in at 3.7 percent in June - now revised to 3.8 percent - and was 2.2 percent in July 2022.

US CPI/Core CPI September
Consumer inflation in the United States picked up in August for a second straight month. The consumer price index, which measures costs across a broad array of goods and services, rose 0.6% MoM in August 2023, and up 3.7% YoY. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy, increased 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY.

US Initial Jobless Claims
Applications in America for unemployment benefits ticked up by 2,000 to 207,000 for the week ending September 30.  Layoffs remained low and the labor market showed resiliency amid elevated interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve. Jobless claim applications are considered a proxy for the number of layoffs in a given week. The four-week moving average of claims fell by 2,500 to 208,750.

UK GDP August
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy. For July 2023, monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.5% following growth of 0.5% in June 2023. GDP grew by 0.9% YoY in July 2023.

China CPI September
China's consumer prices returned to positive territory in August. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3 percent MoM in August and 0.1 percent from a year earlier.  Food prices fell 1.7 percent on year while non-food costs rose 0.5 percent. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, was unchanged at 0.8 percent in August.

October 13 (Friday) India WPI Inflation/WPI Food/WPI Manufacturing September
India's Wholesale price inflation (WPI) remained in negative for the fifth straight month in August at -0.52 percent.  In August last year, WPI inflation was 12.48 percent. The WPI based inflation rate has been in the negative since April, was -1.36 percent in July. Wholesale inflation in vegetables was 48.69 percent in August, against 62.12 percent in July. In pulses, inflation was 10.45 percent, while in onion it skyrocketed to 31.42 percent in August. In manufactured products, inflation rate was -2.37 percent, as against -2.51 percent in July.

India Imports/Exports/Trade Deficit India’s overall exports in August 2023 recorded $60.87 billion exhibiting a negative growth of -4.17 percent over August 2022. Merchandise exports in August 2023 were $34.48 billion, as compared to $37.02 billion in August 2022.

Overall imports in August 2023 recorded $72.50 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of -5.97 percent over August 2022. Merchandise imports in August 2023 were $58.64 billion, as compared to $61.88 billion in August 2022.

Merchandise trade deficit widened to a 10-month high of $24.16 billion in August, as imports surged due on account of festive buying in India. MoM, the trade deficit was up almost 17 percent over July’s $20.67 billion.