Hold Dabur India: target of Rs 500: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities's research report on Dabur India

Dabur India reported another quarter of too many moving parts, with the outlook likely to get better in the near term. The fact that it gained market share in 95% of its portfolio indicates market growth (also) is to be blamed for the unexciting Q2FY26 revenue print. Toothpaste segment was the star performer with 14% YoY revenue growth. Beverage vertical may gain incrementally from better relative price vs. carbonated drinks. We like its decision to create a venture fund with capital of INR 5bn. Management guides for overall revenue growth of HSD in H2FY26. Cyclical upturn is feasible but structural is some time away. Maintain HOLD with TP of INR 500.

Outlook

We model revenue / EBITDA / PAT CAGR of 8 / 9 / 10 (%) over FY25-28E. Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of INR 500. Key upside risk: Lower-than-expected competitive intensity. Key downside risks: Sustained weakness in consumption demand and slower-than-expected pick-up in rural demand.