By 2030, the bloc of BRICS nations is projected to account for nearly half of the world’s population, and while this demographic milestone might not directly alarm the United States, the economic clout of the grouping certainly does.
BRICS’ expanding influence in trade, investment, and tilt toward local currency agreements is increasingly being seen as a challenge to US-dominated economic order.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), BRICS’ share in the global economy is poised to climb to nearly 30 percent by 2030, and the group may also come close to represent a quarter of the global trade. This trajectory has not gone unnoticed, and on July 8, US President Donald Trump threatened member countries with a blanket tariff. “Anybody that’s in BRICS is getting a 10 percent charge. If they are a member of BRICS, they are going to have to pay 10 percent tariff, just for that one thing. And they won’t be a member long,” he said.
Back in 2009, BRICS nations had a 15.5 percent share of global GDP, which has since grown to 26.3 percent in 2024. Their share in global trade rose from 13.6 percent in 2009 to 20.2 percent by 2023. But the bloc’s growing weight isn’t limited to trade. Outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from BRICS countries rose to 14 percent of the global total in 2023, up from 8.3 percent in 2009, while inward FDI also increased, climbing from 16 percent to 20 percent in the same period.
What may be concerning for Washington is the growing intra-BRICS economic interdependence. Since the bloc’s inception with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the group has expanded to ten members including Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates. Between 2010 and 2020, intra-BRICS investment stock increased six-fold, and though still modest in global terms, intra-BRICS investment within the older partners as a proportion of total investment flows rose from 3.2 percent to 4.7 percent.
Trade within the BRICS bloc has accelerated more rapidly than the bloc’s trade with the rest of the world. A Moneycontrol analysis showed that while BRICS’ trade with the world grew by 45.7 percent between 2012 and 2023, intra-BRICS trade jumped by 85.1 percent.
Another shift troubling the United States is the increasing use of local currencies in intra-BRICS trade. Nearly 95 percent of China-Russia trade is now settled in local currencies, up sharply from 21 percent in 2021. Similarly, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister had said in November 2024 that around 90 percent of India-Russia trade was conducted using local or alternative currencies. In March 2025, China and Brazil also announced an agreement to settle bilateral trade using local currencies in an effort to reduce dependency on the dollar.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
