Weekly Numerics is a column where we will present three to five charts based on compelling data points that came out during the week. Here are some of the figures that we found interesting from the week gone by.
GDP growth
The growth of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hit a four-quarter high of 7.8 percent in Q1FY 2023-24, which ended on June 2023, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This is marginally above the expectation, as a poll of economists conducted by Moneycontrol earlier had shown the expected GDP growth for the quarter to be at 7.7 percent. However, the growth rate is lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecast of 8 percent.
Although the rise in growth rate has been helped by a favourable base effect, its impact seems to be dissipating. This could one of the factors why FY23-24 has recorded the lowest first quarter GDP growth in the last three years.
Private consumption has grown nearly 6 percent year-on-year (YoY). However, government expenditure has contracted by around 0.7 percent. The RBI expects growth to fall now, and forecasts GDP growth in the next three quarters to be at 6.5, 6, and 5.7 percent, respectively.
Driest August ever
According to data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), we just lived through the driest August ever in India, with the country recording just 161.7 millimetres of rainfall during the month.
Although normal rainfall is expected to resume in September, the average for the season is still expected to be below normal, even if we receive rainfall at the higher end of the band in the coming month.
The low rainfall last month along with the strengthening of El Niño conditions are a concern for the agricultural sector. More than half of India’s net cultivated area depends on rainfall for irrigation. And rain-fed agriculture accounts for around 40 percent of the country’s food production.
Indians’ opinion of their political leaders
A recent report released by the US-based Pew Research Center shows that around 79 percent of Indians have a favourable view of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while nearly 62 percent have a similar view of Rahul Gandhi of the Congress, the biggest opposition party.
As much as 55 percent of those surveyed expressed a very favourable view of Modi, while 24 percent showed somewhat favourable views. For Gandhi, these figures stood at 26 and 36 percent, respectively.
Around 20 percent of Indians have an unfavourable view of Modi, while 34 percent have an unfavourable view of Gandhi.
The survey also asked the respondents about Mallikarjun Kharge and Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury—both Congress leaders. While the two are seen more favourably than not, nearly a quarter of those surveyed did not offer any opinion.
Gender imbalance in India’s workforce
There is a steep gender imbalance in the Indian workforce. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), women accounted for only 9.4 percent of employed persons in FY22-23.
The data also shows that while men, who account for more than 90 percent of the workforce, are distributed almost evenly across occupation groups, women were largely employed in low-paying jobs such as small-scale trading and wage labour.
As evident from the chart above, nearly half the women who are part of the workforce are small traders and wage labourers, and only around 10 percent of them are businesspersons. Among men, around 30 percent are small traders and wage labourers, while more than 21 percent are businesspersons.
This imbalance in the share of women is also seen in occupations such as farming and among salaried employees as well.
Building up
The size of the Indian real estate sector is expected to reach $5,833 billion by 2047, the 100th year of India’s independence, according to a recent report by the UK-based real estate consultancy Knight Frank.
As the country’s population is on the rise, the country will require 230 million housing units by 2047, according to the report. Meanwhile, growing economic expansion and domestic consumption will also drive up demand for commercial and industrial real estate, as well as warehousing space.
The report also notes that the growth of the real estate sector will promote growth in allied industries such as steel and cement production as well. The country is expected to produce as much 111.3 billion tonnes and 177.6 billion tonnes of steel and cement, respectively by 2047.
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