See Oct IIP at 9.6%, Nov lower at 4.5-5%: IDFC

Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, IDFC expects the index of industrial production (IIP) for the month of October to come in at a higher-end of 9.6 percent, adding that the key driver for this high number would be the base effect of last year, which arises out of shifting of the festive month. Last year Diwali came in month of October, where as this year it came in the month of November. Therefore, pre-festive ramp-up, higher mining and electricity production could aid IIP in October.According to him the uptick in the number could be led by the capital goods sector, which is seeing an upward trend on back of government spending. However, he does see a significant recovery for the consumer durables until the 7 th pay commission comes through. Meanwhile, for November the number would come in lower at around 4.5-5 percent because of loss of production seen in the month due to festival and some impact of Chennai floods on production, which could also flow through into December number, says Pan.