India’s rainfall performance has lagged the long-term average in the first two weeks of June, but a Moneycontrol analysis shows that it’s not 2009 yet.
Although the monsoon arrived over a week before its scheduled date this fiscal—its first early arrival since 2009—rainfall progress has slowed in subsequent weeks.
Data from the India Meteorological Department shows that for the first 16 days of the year, rainfall was averaging 24 percent below normal. However, it is still far from 2009 levels, when the monsoon started early but petered out in the first few weeks.
A comparison shows that in 2009, after the first three weeks, rainfall was 45.5 percent below the 50-year average, or what is termed as normal.
But the 2025 situation leaves little to cheer about as well. Despite monsoon statistics averaging better than in 2009, 22 states in the country experienced deficient or largely deficient conditions.
Another three states had witnessed excess or above-excess rainfall as of June 16.
The eastern parts of the country seem more affected. In Bihar and Jharkhand, rainfall was 62 percent below normal, while most of the Northeastern states experienced over 30 percent deficit.
In the northern region, Uttar Pradesh recorded a 46 percent deficit, while Haryana was at 49 percent.
Punjab witnessed a 38 percent deficit in the first 16 days of the monsoon season.
Chhattisgarh had a deficit of 65 percent, while Odisha and Madhya Pradesh reported 30 percent deficits.
Tamil Nadu and Karnataka were the two states with over 16 percent surplus compared with normal, while Telangana and Andhra Pradesh witnessed over 25 percent deficit.
Although July and August are the crucial months for sowing, a deficit in June does reduce soil moisture.
Experts indicate that spatial and temporal distribution will be key for the crop outlook and food inflation.
“Notwithstanding the early onset of the southwest monsoon, the progress of the same had halted in early June 2025, with a significant lag of 31% over the normal levels up to June 15, 2025. The temporal and spatial distribution of the monsoon remains key for the crop outlook, and consequently, food inflation,” said Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, on June 16 following the release of WPI data.
India's retail food inflation declined to a near four year low of 0.99 percent in May, however, some items like tomato witnessed a faster increase in prices during the month.
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