Coarse cereals sowing has crossed normal area levels until August 15, with rice expected to follow suit soon, as rainfall remained above the long period average for much of the season.
According to Ministry of Agriculture data, kharif crops have been sown on 90.5 percent of the target area, translating into 94.8 percent of the normal coverage. This pace is higher than last year’s, with rainfall averaging 1 percent above normal until August 18. With July and August being the primary sowing months, economists expect coverage to accelerate further in rice, maize, and sunflower in the final fortnight of the sowing season.
“Monsoon rainfall gathered pace moderately over the last week, with excess rains in south and central region. Kharif sowing has entered the last stage of the season, with higher acreage in rice and coarse cereals in y/y terms as of mid-August,” said Astha Gudwani, India chief economist, Barclays.
Rice sowing is keeping pace, with coverage 9.8 percent higher than last year. The crop has already achieved 90.6 percent of its target area and 98.9 percent of the normal area. Healthy kharif output, coupled with the expected GST cuts, is likely to boost rural consumption, which is expected to outpace urban demand. It is also expected to help contain inflation for the rest of the year. The Reserve Bank of India recently cut its inflation forecast to 3.1 percent from 3.7 percent earlier.
Coarse cereals Outperform
Coarse cereals have outperformed, covering 100.9 percent of the normal area, up 5.3 percent from last year. Rajasthan, the country’s largest producer of coarse cereals, has witnessed 40 percent above-normal rainfall, boosting sowing.
Pulses coverage also improved with the pickup in southern monsoon activity, rising 1.1 percent compared with last year. States such as Andhra Pradesh (+10 percent), Telangana (+14 percent) and Karnataka (+14 percent) have recorded above-normal rains, supporting crop progress.
Laggards and Regional Disparities
Oilseeds have lagged behind, covering 85.2 percent of the target and 91.8 percent of the normal area—down 3.6 percent year-on-year. Jute and cotton have also recorded declines.
By contrast, several eastern and northeastern states continue to struggle with rainfall deficits. Assam (-34 percent) and Bihar (-25 percent) remain below normal, weighing on sowing progress. Bihar alone accounts for 1.6 percent of total pulses area and 6 percent of rice acreage in India, making rainfall shortfalls here significant for national coverage.
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