A US Supreme Court decision against Trump’s tariffs will still threaten 10% of India’s exports

Nearly a tenth of India’s exports to the United States, worth about $8.3 billion, will remain at risk even if the US Supreme Court overturns President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff measures, a Moneycontrol analysis shows.

While the court is reviewing the legality of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs imposed under emergency trade provisions, duties levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 will continue to apply. These are targeted at imports deemed critical to US national security—covering products such as steel, aluminium, automobiles, timber, copper, and machinery—and are based on investigations by the US Trade Representative (USTR) rather than presidential emergency powers.

According to UN COMTRADE data, India’s exports in these categories totalled $8.3 billion in 2024, accounting for 10.4 percent of the country's total shipments to the US, which reached $80 billion. That means roughly one in every ten dollars of India’s exports to America remains subject to tariff exposure regardless of the court’s verdict.

Higher dependence in tariff-sensitive sectors

India’s reliance on the US market is particularly acute in these sectors. While the US accounted for 18.3 percent of India’s total exports in 2024, the share rose to 22.7 percent for products covered under Section 232—highlighting the country’s heavier dependence on the American market in tariff-sensitive industries.

The largest exposures are in automobiles ($3.9 billion), steel ($2.5 billion), and aluminium ($800 million), which together make up over 85 percent of India’s at-risk trade. Exports of timber, copper, and industrial vehicles add smaller but still notable sums to the tally.