Factors that will drive NTPC's Q1 earnings

State-run NTPC is likely to post marginal year-on-year decline in profit during June quarter to Rs 2489 crore. Sales may rise around 3 percent to Rs 16,628 crore Y-o-Y states a CNBC-TV18 poll. Analysts expect EBITDA margins to grow around 130 bps to 25 percent Y-o-Y.

Read This: Coal India to sign 7-8 more FSAs with NTPC tomorrow: Rao Have a look at factors that will drive NTPC’s Q1 numbers
 
Overall gross generation could surprise negatively – by posting a decline of almost 3 percent Y-o-Y to 57,000 billion units.
Average tariffs for NTPC projects could come in higher by 6 percent Y-o-Y to Rs 3.11 / unit.
Expect modest plant load factors for thermal based power plants at around 80 percent
Gas stations too are expected to register low PLFs of 40 percent.
 Fuel cost savings were on on-track in Q1 but sales from its high margin spot market may slow due to cap on volume / realization
 
 Key things to watch out for
Coal supply and PAF of its plants
Coal receipts in Q1
Outlook on commissioning for F2014
Company's captive coal block advancement
Clarity on modifications in a few fuel supply agreement provisions with Coal India Stock strategy
Stock is inching lower to its 52 week lows of Rs 136 seen in Mar 2013 --- and this is despite positive management commentary and re-iteration by them that imports will gather pace in FY14 and FSA disputes with Coal India are all in the past
The firm has now signed FSAs with Coal India – thus resolving all their long pending disputes --- which removes a major overhang of undersupply of coal for pre-2009 projects.